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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TH who wrote (101794)	3/1/2009 11:59:03 AM
From: zamboz	Respond to of 110194

here's a great visual to go with those posts Message 25452461

To: TH who wrote (101794)	3/1/2009 2:00:50 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

on the first one... i think 1988 or thereabouts, in superficial numbers, will be where we go. that takes us back to the ending of the '87 crisis, and where greenspan began his tenure. spx 400 give or take 100. (in some areas we are already at 1992). obviously on the second one, the market has done nothing at all if priced in gold. absolutely nothing, and even all the gee whiz years are fundamentally crap in gold terms... we have already exceed the one to one ratio with the spx, though the dow has been the historic barometer in the past... which by the way, was also around 1988 when it was last one to one/2 to one. so, another 50% down in the markets from here in superficial terms, and 3000 or less on the dow, and, given it turns out that way, there's your flight path. what happens in between, is the tricky part. it would not surprise me to see a 10 or 15% rally from here on the way to 400. we have 3 trillion of usa spending to go, and untold trillions being spent by europe and asia, all funny money, but none the less, some of that liquidity is going to show up sooner than later, unless we get another credit freeze like we had last autumn. then we get another lock up of the system. and all the other variations in between of course <g> ultimately total monetary reset and violence on the streets. and some level of hyperinflation. a large storage room would be good for pinto beans and such, the more the better from which to barter when the paper money is no longer welcomed. bottles of vodka should be very handy etc etc etc. all paper wealth should be out of currencies of any kind, and either in ownership shares of going businesses, or gold etc. my view is, gold miners are multiples of gold still, and therefore, the return is far greater than the metal itself, and so much so, given the proper timing, will buy even more gold, even when the metal is at higher prices. when that math no longer works, will probably be a signal to start the end play, take cover, and turn on the security cams.