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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elmer who wrote (25305)	10/25/1997 12:02:00 AM
From: James Yu	Respond to of 1575429

Elmer, See, Youngang knows the answer. Best wishes James

To: Elmer who wrote (25305)	10/25/1997 3:37:00 AM
From: Ali Chen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1575429

Elmer, <at any rate I don't share the view that $1.57 Billion is in any way disappointing> Who are you for us to listen to your view? Wall Street apparently sees this situation in other way, as definitely disappionting. Their disappointment is a FACT, and you look pretty silly when trying to oppose your WRONG OPINION against proven FACT. <What reasonable person would?> A reasonable person sees that the Intel ASP, due to their paranoia, drops faster than unit sales, which leads to monotonically decreasing earnings per share: 1.10, 0.92, 0.88. As I said before, with this trend it is more profitable to put your money into CD at 5% APY, at least for the next year. A reasonable person also sees that all the growing part of the market will be captured by competition: AMD, Cyrix, IDT, Samsung, UMC. Just because the major part of this growth is in the sub-$1000 segment. Intel does not play in that segment because it does not fit its established high-margin business model. Therefore, there is no reason to expect that unit sales will grow significantly to offset the falling ASP, earnings will remain "flat", no higher than 0.85. So, get ready to see Intel at 20x3.4=$68 range. It does not matter how impressive their Billions are. The Street EXPECTATIONS are not met, and never will in the foreseeble future because these expectations are set by Intel business model, not by ocassional manipulation with earnings numbers. But the EXPECTED model is broken today. That's it.