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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ChanceIs who wrote (187463)3/1/2009 8:07:08 PM
From: PerspectiveRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
UHAL - I don't suppose anybody has any thoughts on whether these guys are going to have trouble rolling over debt this year.

yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com

I see they have plenty of debt coming due, but I don't know what their lenders are going to look at on the refi.

`BC



To: ChanceIs who wrote (187463)3/1/2009 8:18:45 PM
From: PerspectiveRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
CEC - I just don't understand this stuff. These guys are saying same store sales are going to be off just 1-2% this year. And that's all they've fallen to date. Really?!?!?!??? How in the world can this be happening? How much has unemployment gone up? And I don't think CEC can claim the "inferior good" hypothesis. I can see Darden or Brinker, but people don't switch down to CEC, do they? Either you go there or you don't, right? And my impression is that it isn't the folks with a ton of disposable income going there.

Oh well, I've got a starter position. If it turns my way, I'll fill it out. Until then it will just annoy me.

`BC



To: ChanceIs who wrote (187463)3/30/2009 4:57:05 PM
From: PerspectiveRespond to of 306849
 
Tripped over this FFO vs. income paragraph that confirmed my belief on why income has *historically* been ignored:

finance.yahoo.com

Substantially all of our non-current assets consist of real estate investments and debt investments secured by real estate. Historical cost accounting for real estate assets implicitly assumes that the value of real estate assets diminishes predictably over time. Since real estate values instead have historically risen or fallen with market conditions, most industry investors consider supplemental measures of performance, which are not measures of operating performance under GAAP, to assist in evaluating a real estate company's operations. These supplemental measures include FFO, AFFO, EBITDA, Hotel Operating Profit, and CAD. FFO is computed in accordance with our interpretation of standards established by NAREIT, which may not be comparable to FFO reported by other REITs that do not define the term in accordance with the current NAREIT definition or that interpret the NAREIT definition differently than us. Neither FFO, AFFO, EBITDA, Hotel Operating Profit, nor CAD represents cash generated from operating activities as determined by GAAP and should not be considered as an alternative to a) GAAP net income (loss) as an indication of our financial performance or b) GAAP cash flows from operating activities as a measure of our liquidity, nor are such measures indicative of funds available to satisfy our cash needs, including our ability to make cash distributions. However, management believes FFO, AFFO, EBITDA, Hotel Operating Profit, and CAD to be meaningful measures of a REIT's performance and should be considered along with, but not as an alternative to, net income and cash flow as a measure of our operating performance.

So, we don't care income, since real estate always goes up.

Except when it doesn't.

Whoops - I guess income and depreciation matter again...

`BC