To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (15943 ) 3/3/2009 5:57:04 PM From: SliderOnTheBlack 8 Recommendations Respond to of 50304 Trading thoughts... Yesterday I mentioned that I thought the next major level of buying support for the HUI gold stock index would be at HUI 248-265. And sure enough... after a hard gap down open, buyers came in long & strong and bounced the HUI off it's 260 low, and pushed it to a HUI 274 close. Given the huge sell off in the DOW and S&P yesterday, I thought we'd see some forced selling into the open today, given that mutual fund redemptions had to be huge, as key 7000, and 700 levels were broken in the DOW and S&P. And after the gap down open, most HUI & GDX gold stocks bounced 7-10% off of the morning lows. I flipped about half of what I bought this morning, as I want to keep some powder dry in case this correction takes us to the next level of support in the HUI 240's. While I think there is incredible fundamental value here in gold stocks, if the DOW and S&P have another gap down day, I think it's going to take the gold stocks down with it. So if you step in for a day trade here... keep some powder dry, and keep tight stops. You either get your bounce, or you get stopped out fast. Gold's now been down 7 sessions in a row and feels a little over-sold and due for a bounce here. Maybe today's positive action in the shares will encourage a little buying in the metal. Maybe I'm missing something? Someone tell me what's not to like about this chart? So we had a little profit taking... And why wouldn't we? We just had a $300 move. That's all part of the game. Gold's nearing another buy level and is still strongly in an uptrend. That's when you want to be adding gold stocks. Especially when Central Bankers are propping up the fundamentals with an unprecedented global reflation. Japan is now going to buy NIKKEI stocks and Gordon Brown is calling for a G-20 Global "New Deal" in April. What more could any card-carry gold bug want? Volume-wise, things cooled off a bit today, and that's a good thing. In the gold stocks, only ABX and AUY showed big volume today. ABX bounced +$2 from it's gap down open, and finished up +1.47% on 20.3 million shares vs. 15.6 m average volume. AUY closed up +2.42% on 23.9 million shares vs. 19.8 m avg. vol. SLV opened with a big gap down, but bounced + .40 cents off it's morning lows and only closed down .12 cents, on strong volume of 16.9 million shares vs. 9.3 m average volume. The GLD ETF also sold off on the open, but after 11 a.m. stayed steady, in a slight uptrend the rest of the day on heavy volume of 28 million shares vs. 17.4 avg. vol. I reduced my SH short position today as for once, the DOW didn't tank on the TV appearances of Bernanke & Geithner. For the broad market, it's probably a good thing that we didn't see a big V-bounce today, just a cool, calm, and collected day in the DOW, closing down -37 points. Wild, volatile swings scare people out of the market. We don't need any more mutual fund liquidations. Lot's of fund managers hold ABX, NEM, and GG. And the gold stock indices suffer when the broad market sells off to levels that generate massive mutual fund redemptions. And too often, these mangers sell what's up, to average down into what's not. I'd like to see a calm bottoming process continue tomorrow and Thursday. And then a big 2-300 point DOW rally on Friday. That's the best broad market scenario for gold stocks. Stay on your toes here. There's some trades to be made. I'd keep AEM at the top of your buy list on any & all weakness. "The Eagle" has monster production growth coming online over the next two years and is "the" fav' among the hedge funds that are heavy into metals & miners. ABX still looks very cheap. There were rumors of a share offering and I think that's already priced in, whether real, or rumor. And with it's AAA balance sheet you can sleep at night... the same with GG & NEM. PAAS is a debt free silver play and it really got over-sold here. I actually now hold more PAAS than SLW, but am looking to add SLW should we see the HUI 240's level. I've also been adding some KGC here, and grabbed some MFN on the dip sub $5.20 this a.m. If gold can hold $875ish support on this pullback, and we can get an interim bottom in the DOW... I think gold and gold stocks could be poised for liftoff post the April 2nd G-20 meeting in London. There's a little room above $1000 on the top trend line of gold's present trading channel. And I'm thinkin' the G-20 just might do something to fill it. Mo later, SOTB