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To: TREND1 who wrote (22919)	10/24/1997 11:56:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 53903

larry, i can't call a long term bottom for mu because there are so many factors involved. maybe taiwan decides that a dram jobs program is too expensive for welfare. maybe samsung gets out of the dram business. maybe toshiba does too. maybe the technology moves in a particular direction and mu calls it just right and everyone else is wrong. if things don't change significantly, though, mu is toast - $0 is realistic. i'd assign about a 25% probability to that happening. not likely, but a very real possibility that shouldn't be taken out of the equation. lack of deep pockets moving forward and the invredible capital expenditures required to stay in the game are the main reasons why this is a possibility. technological change is awsome and this accelerates capital requirements dramatically. right now, i feel fair value is between $12 to $17. dram can turn the corner. appleton and kip may go to korea and taiwan with gasoline and matches ;-) who knows? ;-) we are still in the glut. it is worse than last year. except for a single dram holdback by the koreans, mu would've never made over $0.20 in any one q. the bulls focus on effect - dram is going up - and miss the cause - dram holdback. now, they bet that the holdback would not only go on forever, but that it would increase so mu's eps gains could continue into next year. a very bad bet. now they must pay the piper. just call me piper ;-)