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To: Sonki who wrote (3215)3/3/2009 10:52:00 AM
From: Nancy  Respond to of 3618
 
Sonki,

Do you still plan to be in current locale? Not everywhere of the country see the same price declines on the housing front. Some are much harder hit than others. Even in the hardest-hit area, high-end properties still command $800 to $1000 per sqft - and there are transactions!

We may make a bottom but I dont expect anything like 2003 - the underlying issue is completely different, and dare I say, This time is indeed DIFFERENT.

Global synchronization of growth now ends with global synchronization of recession. I honestly dont know what other bubble we can create to lead us out of this burst of the credit bubble - So we had an internet bubble, which the economy was saved by the credit bubble (on a much larger scale, as the whole country and the whole world were involved in this drunken feast). Then there is this inadvertently created bubble - Treasury bubble, which obviously would not be able to pull us out of this mess, but has a dire potential to disrupt the economy in the future (hyper inflation).

Call me a pessimist. This is a time to be cautious and I should have avoided the temptation to try to get more from an oversold bounce, and be content to what Market God handed out!



To: Sonki who wrote (3215)3/3/2009 1:16:51 PM
From: Nancy  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 3618
 
I forgot to add, Doug Kass also said in not too long ago, that WFC at $27 was a buy, and if you had 2 years horizon, at $27 you could double your money...

I hope nobody has acted on this free advice - WFC flopped around in that area for about a week to 10 days, then decidedly went down to now 10 to 15 range - of course it had made several spectacularly short-squeeze rallies and even made it back to 20xx a couple times in the process...

Imagine if you bought at 27, now under 12 - even if it doubles you are still under...

Take any talk with a big grain of salt, such as Buffet told the American Public we must take Paulson's TARP and once that was administrated, we would be OK... That was in October. We are now at least 2500 Dow pts down and Berkshire has lost another 30% of value...

Personally, I felt Buffet was using his reputation and influence, trying to save his holdings... but he way underestimated the magnitude of the problem, and the now wiser-up (thru the hard-knock school) investors.