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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (33703)	3/3/2009 10:45:42 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78704

Yes it's easier to get gas oversupply because gas resources deplete faster (except the shale, but even shale has a very strong decay during the first year of operation) and the NG market in North America is local. By the same logic I expect the supply situation to turn faster for NG than for oil. I a just no sure how to play this yet. today i was stopped out of SE at 11.9$ Ouch! The pipeline companies are OK because they pay while you wait, but SE is not extraordinary cheap at this point, I think. I think the 1$ dividend is somewhat safe since they raised capital that should be enough to finance the growth projects in Y2009 so a tight coverage should be alright. I am considering WMB which has a strong pipeline business too but their midstream is suffering and so is their E&P in the Rockies. This on seems to be valued below book value although I am not sure how safe the book value is - we have seen quite a few asset writedowns with E&P's.Then there are E&P plays like EOG which are well managed and have a decent balance sheet but are probably not cheap enough. So right now I like the oil majors more. I own RDS.A and TOT , the latter is probably the stronger one. They do pay decent dividends that I consider fairly safe.