Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (43628)	3/4/2009 7:41:29 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	4 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95531

Solar news: Dissecting the Solar Shakeout: ...optimist points to module average selling prices, which we forecast will fall below $2.50 per Watt in 2009, as a sign that grid parity is imminent. The pessimist points to company balance sheets, noting – as we do – that even the most successful European and American multi-crystalline manufacturers will have profit margins of only 5 percent in 2009...In the past eight years, module prices have fallen at an average of 2 percent annually, while average demand has increased 51 percent per annum. In 2007 and 2008, module prices fell 7 percent and 12 percent, while demand rose 46 percent and 69 percent over the same period. seekingalpha.com "Big successful PV companies are being integrated downstream. It's a great way for them to cut costs along the supply chain," Englander said. "Companies that can access the capital will be able to build the projects." The utility market has become especially attractive thanks to a growing number of states requiring utilities to offer a certain percentage of power from renewable sources such as solar and wind. A new, 30 percent federal tax credit, in place starting this year, also has enticed utilities to own and operate their own solar power plants. In the past, they mostly preferred to ink long-term contracts to buy solar power from independent power plant developers and owners. seekingalpha.com ...“In order to reduce inventories, suppliers will have slashed their cell and module prices by 25% or more (in 2009)...Cell and module capacity will overshoot demand by twofold in 2009 to reach 10.4 GW, precipitating a shakeout that will eliminate all but the top players....As the most readily financeable technology, crystalline silicon will continue to dominate the market this year (2009). But competing thin-film technologies, including amorphous silicon and CdTe, will continue to grow aggressively, and CIGS also stands to gain overall despite expectations of widespread company failure... seekingalpha.com Tokyo Electron is becoming Oerlikon’s sales representative in Asia, where both Oerlikon and Applied (AMAT) has a number of customers. The relationship will intensify the already fierce competition between Tokyo Electron and Applied in the semiconductor and flat panel display markets. seekingalpha.com from FSLR CC: ...cut production costs to $0.98/watt, from $1.08/watt in 10/08...the short-term outlook for the solar industry in our view has never looked more difficult...Equity financing in solar projects ranging from building owners that purchase systems for their rooftops to institutional project investors is continuing but its become less predictable...project finance costs are higher than before, putting downward pressure on its systems and module prices. These conditions are pressuring the entire solar value chain: equipment suppliers, module manufacturers, as well as project developers, system integrators and distributors... seekingalpha.com ...buy proven (not probable) green energy companies. You don’t want to own companies that are stuck in the lab with loads of potential. Instead, pick the ones with bona fide products and loads of sales... seekingalpha.com (good advice, IMO. I'd add, they need good margins, in addition to sales growth.) Non-OPEC oil production peaked in late 2006 above 41 Mb/day. It’s unlikely we’ll ever see those production levels again....For six years non-OPEC supply was flat, around 40+ Mb/day. This even though prices rose from 30.00 to 150.00. In fact, without Russia, non-OPEC supply would have fallen. What happened is that the legacy cheap oil was increasingly replaced by newer, harder, expensive oil. seekingalpha.com (Oil continues to form a base at 40$/b, ending the spectacular 2008 collapse. Alt-energy stocks move with oil. Wind and solar can't really take off, till oil gets back above $60. $wtic, FAN, TAN, FSLR, SPWRA charts look the same. TAN just set a new low, while FAN bounced at last November's low.)