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To: Fiscally Conservative who wrote (16028)3/5/2009 2:56:38 PM
From: Mannie  Respond to of 50281
 
Rogers added he remains “extremely bullish” on agriculture and that “commodities are the only sector in the world where the fundamentals are improving.”

China Stimulus Can’t Pull World Out of ‘Hole,’ Jim Rogers Says

By Chua Kong Ho

March 5 (Bloomberg) -- China cannot pull the world economy “out of the hole” through its stimulus spending alone and the global recession is not going to end anytime soon, investor Jim Rogers said.

China’s parliament convened today in its annual meeting in Beijing, where Premier Wen Jiabao reiterated the government’s pledge to “significantly increase” investment in 2009 to help counter the slowest growth in seven years. He didn’t announce any new stimulus spending.

“China can’t solve the world’s problems,” Rogers, the author of “A Bull in China: Investing Profitably In The World’s Greatest Market,” said in a phone interview today. “China is a wonderful and growing economy but it cannot pull the world out of the hole.”

Wen’s report to lawmakers, the equivalent of a U.S. State of the Union speech, reiterated the country’s 8 percent growth target. That’s more optimistic than the International Monetary Fund’s forecast that the nation’s economy will expand 6.7 percent, the least in almost two decades.

The Shanghai Composite Index rose 6.1 percent yesterday, the most in four months, on speculation the government will increase a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus plan announced in November aimed at combating a slowdown that’s thrown at least 20 million workers out of work.

The index rose as much as 2 percent today after the government said banks lent more than 800 billion ($117 billion) in February after a record month in January, signaling the flow of credit needed to jumpstart the economy was continuing.

‘Unrealistic’

Stocks rallied worldwide yesterday, as commodity prices surged on hopes an expanded stimulus plan by China will increase demand for raw materials. The S&P 500 Index futures reversed earlier gains today after Wen’s speech contained no references to increased stimulus spending.

“One question people keep asking is can China bring the whole world along out of this recession,” said Lee King Fuei, a Hong Kong-based portfolio manager at Schroder Investment Management, which oversees about $158 billion worldwide. “The fact that they’re even asking this question tells me they’re being unrealistic.”

Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, said he hasn’t bought any Chinese stocks since November as valuations are not attractive.

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks Chinese companies mostly traded in Hong Kong, is valued at 8.9 times reported earnings. Valuations fell to 7.4 times the week ended Oct. 24, the lowest in almost seven years, according to Bloomberg data. The Shanghai Composite’s 20 percent gain this year also made it the best performer among 91 benchmark indexes tracked by Bloomberg.

“I haven’t bought any Chinese stocks since November and haven’t sold anything either,” Rogers said. “I’m waiting for cheaper prices. I’m not buying Chinese shares at these levels.”

Rogers added he remains “extremely bullish” on agriculture and that “commodities are the only sector in the world where the fundamentals are improving.”



To: Fiscally Conservative who wrote (16028)3/8/2009 9:08:26 PM
From: Mike M2  Respond to of 50281
 
A recent Jim Rogers interview Message 25475681