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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (33717)	3/5/2009 8:44:26 PM
From: Grommit	Respond to of 78748

LXP -- I am betting that you are too pessimistic on LXP (see below). But who knows? I bought more LXP-D at 7.3, yielding 25.9%. And I could not resist some LXP common at 2.32, paying 31%. But I am trying to be disciplined and only add pref until things clear up. My portfolio is now 60% pref stocks. CLP: biz.yahoo.com CLP-D yielding 21.4% now. If they pay the common, they have to pay the preferred. It may be in the form of stock, but "The company intends to continue to declare quarterly distributions on its common shares..." But their payout ratio on the common is a bit high. But what do they care if it is stock? LXP: Circuit City, which occupies a 288,000 square foot office building, generated approximately $2.9 million of that NOI has rejected our lease and we expect that building to be vacant at the end of February. That being said, we currently do not have any other material delinquencies in the portfolio, and we are pleased with how well credit quality is holding up in such a severe economic contraction. As of year end, we had 18 leases in our consolidated portfolio scheduled to expire in 2009, and 14 leases scheduled to expire in 201. These amounts represent 7.7% and 6.9% respectively of our consolidated portfolio GAAP revenues as of December 31, 2008. To provide some additional perspective, in 2008 we had 2.9 million square feet come up for expiration, and in 2009 it will be 2.5 million square feet. Anthony Paolone – JP Morgan Natasha, I think you mentioned occupancy for ’09 projected down to about 92% and I think your year end was 93.3% and you had mentioned Harcourt potentially going out. I’m just trying to get a sense as to how much speculative leasing do you need to get done to hit the 92%, given what you know about tenants that are probably not sticking around? Natasha Roberts Harcourt I assume is empty through year end so that’s a vacant building. The other big one is the Sam’s Real Estate Trust that stays vacant through year end. Properties that become vacant in 2009 stay vacant. Anthony Paolone – JP Morgan And is that all that you have assumed to get to the 92%? I’m just trying to see if you need to do any other leasing if the expected vacancies get you below 92% and you need to do some leasing to get it back up to 92%? Natasha Roberts No. The expected vacancies get me to 92%. The only assumptions I’m making are there’s leases where we either have a renewal already or are very close to having one. The Harcourt is not one of them. The Sam’s Club is not one of them. Federal Express is not one of them. Anthony Paolone – JP Morgan So to dip below that it would have to be something more unexpected occurring. Natasha Roberts Exactly. "...funds from operations per share to be in the range of $1.35 to $1.42 in 2009, and this range does not include items that should be considered non-recurring, such as lease termination revenue and gains on discharge of indebtedness. me: The 2009 dividend is 72 cents on earnings of $1.35+. looks comfortable to me unless we are in an economic death spiral. ref seekingalpha.com