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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (7294)	10/25/1997 9:59:00 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Bill PRICE EROSION slowly and surely. I posted this on the LSI tread and think is also appropriate for this thread: WS teached you WRONGLY to evaluate companies on future earnings. Why? because you can not prove them wrong, and if they are wrong WS analysts hide (from a legal point of view) behind the non-sense by saying it was ANTICIPATED EARNINGS. Well so much for those Snake Oil Sellers. Now to the actuality, WS was trumpeting the BIG OPPORTUNITIES in SEA and the local US market was already discounted in the valuations of the various stocks. Now WS recognises that SEA "explosive" market evaporated for the time beeing (1 to 2 years if not more) SEA still is the most populos area on the globe about 3 billion people including India/Bangaladesh. Now it resonable to asume that around 15% to 20% (Japan itself is 90 million) of those people standard of living is similar to the US standard, and that is substantialy more than all the US economy. So you have a biger than US economy in a recession/depression situation and to reinforce it, Japan still can not recover after 7 years!!! Most WS experts try to convince you to ignore SE Asia as it is a small part of US Exports, 5% to 10% well let's see another angle, such as those guys will not buy AND will not pay their bills, therefore, Anticipated profits will shrink substantialy, just think of 2% to 5% revenue as "uncollecteble" accounts receiveble during the next 6 to 9 months. That's a hit to operating profits which trickle straigth to the bottom line Happy trading Haim