Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joey Smith who wrote (37602)	10/25/1997 10:57:00 AM
From: Joey Smith	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

All: Article: Intel's ASP seen RISING over the next 5 years as they continue to dominate high-end MPU market. Factor this information in with potential manaufacturing cost improvements over the next few years, and Intel EPS growth looks healthy. joey October 27, 1997, Issue: 1081 Section: News Non-Intel MPU growth forecast By Ismini Scouras San Diego- It's difficult to assess whether Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and Cyrix Corp. could have a chance to grab any meaningful market share in the next couple of years, with Intel Corp. garnering 96% of the 1996 X86 microprocessor market. But vendors "can play in the market if they're not Intel," said Nathan Brookwood, an analyst at Dataquest Inc., at the San Jose-based market research firm's Semiconductor Conference here last week. Non-Intel X86 microprocessor revenue is estimated to rise by a factor of 10, to $7.7 billion by 2002, he said. The X86 microprocessor market is expected to increase by a factor of three in the next five years, from $15 billion in 1996 to $44 billion in 2002, Brookwood added. "Intel Inside" will still command a premium, keeping the ASP growth curve on an upward swing, as Intel microprocessor ASPs are expected to rise from roughly $250 in 1997 to just less than $300 in 2002. Non-Intel microprocessor ASPs should remain flat at roughly $125. "Cloners will pick up the low end of the market," Brookwood said, while Intel will dominate the high end. Meanwhile, due to the severe price degradation of DRAMs, the global semiconductor market will not hit the $300 billion mark until 2001, not 2000 as Dataquest predicted a year ago. Worldwide semiconductor revenue is estimated to reach $150 billion this year, compared with $142 billion last year, when the chip industry fell 6% from $151 billion in sales in 1995. In 1998, the semiconductor market is expected to grow 16.7%, to $175 million. According to Dataquest, electronic-equipment production growth of 6% to 8% in the next four years will support a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% to 18% in the semiconductor market. The three major applications driving the chip market are PCs, communications equipment, and consumer electronics, which currently account for 75% of the total chip market, said Joseph Grenier, vice president and director of the semiconductor devices group at Dataquest. The PC market will ship 83 million units this year and as many as 152 million units in 2001, representing a 16% CAGR, according to Dataquest estimates. PC-unit demand continues to drive the DRAM market, Grenier said. Graphics and multimedia enhancements will drive the average system requirements from 32 Mbytes this year to 152 Mbytes in 2001. The DRAM market continues to be in favor of the buyer. Although DRAM bit growth in the first eight months of this year has grown 100% compared with the first eight months of 1996, DRAM prices continue to fall. One of the hot areas in the semiconductor market is flash memory, which will grow from roughly $3 billion this year to $6.8 billion in 2001, driven by digital-cellular phones. Communications ICs, another emerging market, will grow to $60 billion in revenue in 2001 from $8 billion in 1990, Grenier said. Copyright (c) 1997 CMP Media Inc. [New Search] [Search the Web] You can reach this article directly: techweb.com