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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: greenspirit who wrote (105610)	3/6/2009 10:02:15 PM
From: JohnM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 540836

Michael, please provide a link for the Summers' quote and the CBO observation.

To: greenspirit who wrote (105610)	3/6/2009 10:05:52 PM
From: Mary Cluney	Respond to of 540836

<<<The CBO has joined critics by releasing a report projecting the "stimulus" will worsen the long-run performance of the economy.>>> The Congressional Budget Office analysis, in a letter dated Feb. 11, 2009, wrote that the package will increase GDP growth in 2009 by 1.4 percent to 3.8 percent and add 2 million to 4 million jobs by 2010. Historically, each new job spurs 100 square feet of net absorption of industrial real estate at the national level. As such, even 2 million new jobs would generate 200 million square feet of net absorption. While the stimulus plan’s job creation results remain to be determined, we are certain that net employment increases would lead to positive net absorption.

To: greenspirit who wrote (105610)	3/6/2009 10:17:55 PM
From: Sam	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 540836

Michael, I haven't seen the Obama administration claim that "virtually all economists support their approach to spending." I also find it odd to quote Summers in this context, since he is one of the architects of the plan. Did he make a plan that he disagrees with in important ways? Or perhaps the way the plan is being represented by some of its critics is not accurate? I saw the CBO report. The CBO has made many forecasts in the past, as has OMB. They have been wildly wrong at different times. Forecasts for one year out are difficult at best, and if they are right, I suspect it is chance--try to duplicate correct forecasts for two or three years in a row. Forecasts for 10 years out are absurd. They are utterly unreliable. From any human being. Including [gasp] economists. Just look at Art Laffer's forecasts in the past. Or Alan Greenspan's. Or recall those forecasts of a year ago for $200/barrel oil. Just to take a couple of examples.