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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ggersh who wrote (18368)	3/8/2009 5:12:28 PM
From: LTK007	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71456

Another Great Depression,am i being OUTRAGOUS? i quote Gregory Spear, one the best "Investors are concerned that the U.S. economy is headed to hell in a hand basket. Fears of a Second Great Depression abound and there is some evidence suggesting that things are actually headed that way despite Fed Chairman Bernanke's stalwart commitment to not make the same mistakes that were made in the '30s. The Fed is much more proactive, but the disruptive forces it is dealing with are orders of magnitude greater than before." When i say we are heading to a disaster, am i being just a "devilishy negative , want to scare people" troll? In no way, in fact, for me it is a matter of INTEGRITY. I quote Taleb: "To be genuinely empirical is to reflect reality as faithfully as possible, to be honorable implies, NOT fearing the appearance and consequences of being OUTLANDISH." A lot of digging and individual thought goes behind my Cassandra views. i myself, can't say "i hope i am wrong", because, to maintain a clear vision, i need be convinced what will be will be and saying i hope i am wrong as having zero bearing on anything. i know i am ZILCH(VBG:) Will i be wrong?? i quote Nassim Taleb who said if pull out this and recover THAT would a Black Swan event. He said the collapse itself was a mix between a white swan and greyish Swan, the truly shocking event would be a move into an actual recovery that would be a Black Swan. So yes, a Black Swan could prove me wrong--the concept of Black Swan Events are not necessarily Negative events. But for those that think think doomsters are the majority haven't been watching Bloomberg TV, where now one "expert analyst" after another is predicting the beginnings of recovery in 2nd half of 2009--that will gain momentum in 2010-- and both the talking heads and Obama are getting more and more with the program of The Fed Speak and much of Wallstreet Speak and Corporate Speak.(But BOTH Obama and Fed, however, cover their butt, by saying there optimism is based on uncertainty, as it may not happen in 2009) This will become the prevailing mantra of the Mainstream "Experts"--THEY are BACK, saying to the Public get back in the water, give us your money on a LTBH basis--PLEEEESE!!! That is the group the Nassim Taleb considers the stupidest people on earth, with a fantastic track record of being WRONG. They are unreliable as it is their Primal Directive to talk up, to persuade, to please, to be a team player with WS and Corporate America. Obama is getting with the program NOW/this from Saturday speech ********************************************************* Saturday March 07, 2009, 3:16 PM For the first time since taking office, President Obama is suggesting that some Americans may be overreacting to the nation's economic woes by dramatically ratcheting back their spending. "What I don’t think people should do is suddenly stuff money in their mattresses and pull back completely from spending," Obama told The New York Times in an interview published on the Web Saturday. "I don’t think that people should be fearful about our future. I don’t think that people should suddenly mistrust all of our financial institutions because the overwhelming majority of them actually have managed things reasonably well." He again recommended people start investing for the longterm as he did earlier last week. ******************************************** <<The positive comments from Obama are sure to be seen by some analysts as a bid to boost consumer spending, which accounts for about 60% of U.S. economic activity and has fallen sharply in recent months. Obama startled reporters on Tuesday by seeming to encourage stock buying after his top aides had said for weeks that they were unconcerned over short-term drops in the markets. "What you're now seeing is profit and earning ratios are starting to get to the point where buying stocks is a potentially good deal if you've got a long-term perspective on it," he said during a press availability in the Oval Office. Obama was more cautious than his aides in one regard—predicting when the economy will turn around. Asked if he saw such a recovery beginning in the summer, the fall or by the end of the year, he declined to be pinned down. "I don’t think that anybody has that kind of crystal ball. We are going through a wrenching process of de-leveraging in the financial sectors – not just here in the United States, but all around the world – that have profound consequences for Main Street," Obama told the Times. "It is going to take some time to work itself through." *************************************************** Bottomline, those that think the Doom and Gloom is the prevailing MANTRA are dead wrong. That makes me feel better:) Max