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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (7426)10/25/1997 1:46:00 PM
From: Peter Shaw  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 25814
 
Haim,
I'm going to respectfuly disagree on the Fed tightening scenario. It is not Alan Greenspan's job or desire to scare equity investors with actual policy changes to stabilize the market. Jawboning has been the first line of defense, and the Fed has been in high gear to remind markets that they hold the power!
Qualified labor shortages are mainly in the engineering realm, and computer programers. Big labor is getting more aggressive on other fronts, but the threat of wage push inflation is being tempered by the deflationary influences of the Asian debacle. My prediction is status quo from the Fed...
Earnings issues will bring the market down in a more orderly fashion, as the strong dollar and relatively strong bond market act as moderating influences. Should foreigners begin a mass repatriation of their bond holdings once stability arrives, we could have an uglier situation than I've outlined. Especially if Hong Kong rates remain at 20%, and other countries attempt to attract currency in the short term.
LSI is attempting to find some sort of bottom in here. I think a bounce Monday after a weak open is in the cards. We're awfully oversold right now.
Good Luck to all,

Peter Shaw



To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (7426)10/25/1997 2:43:00 PM
From: kech  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25814
 
Haim - What is the logic of doing this when the recession in the far east will provide low cost inputs from there and reduce demand from many US companies. The latter effect will reduce wage pressure plenty. QED: No need to raise rates. Further, raising rates would simply exacerbate capital flight from SEA - not help it. If Greenspan is responsibile at all he will hold off IMHO.