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To: Poet who wrote (189698)3/9/2009 9:08:22 PM
From: stockman_scottRespond to of 306849
 
Roubini Says S&P 500 May Drop to 600 as Profits Fall (Update2)

By Jeff Kearns

March 9 (Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is likely to drop to 600 or lower this year as the global recession intensifies, said Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the financial crisis.

The benchmark index for U.S. stocks would have to slump 12 percent from last week’s closing level to meet his forecast. Roubini is assuming that companies in the S&P 500 will report profit of $50 a share this year and investors will pay 12 times that for equities.

“My main scenario is that it’s highly likely it goes to 600 or below,” Roubini said today in an interview at the Chicago Board Options Exchange Risk Management Conference in Dana Point, California. A level of “500 is less likely, but there is some possibility you get there.”

The S&P 500 has dropped 25 percent to 676.53 in 2009, its worst start to a year, following a 38 percent decline in 2008 that was the steepest annual retreat since 1937. In response to the U.S. recession that began in December 2007, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark lending rate to as low as zero and President Barack Obama got congressional approval for a $787 billion economic stimulus plan.

“Even if you do everything right with fiscal and monetary policy, we’re still going to be in a recession through the end of this year and into next year,” Roubini said earlier during his speech at the options-industry conference. “The recession train left the station over a year ago, and it’s going to continue.”

‘Severe’ Risks

Stocks still face “severe” risks and may extend declines amid plunging corporate earnings, an accelerating contraction of the global economy and a dimming outlook for banks, he said. The global economy is likely to shrink for the first time since World War II and trade will decline by the most in 80 years, the World Bank said yesterday.

“This onslaught of worse-than-expected macro news is going to have a negative effect on stock markets,” he said in his speech. “In the next few months many people are going to realize that many financial institutions are insolvent.”

Merrill Lynch & Co.’s chief North American Economist David Rosenberg said today the S&P 500 may bottom out at 600 in October, lowering his estimate after the benchmark’s decline last week. That level is about 20 percent below November’s level of 752.44, which was then widely viewed as the “fundamental low,” Rosenberg said.

Roubini, known as “Dr. Doom” because of his predictions of global financial collapse, also said there was “some positive news” because the Group of Seven industrialized nations has pledged not to let major banks fail.

“Last fall, we were one accident from a financial meltdown,” he said. “That risk of a total sudden meltdown has been reduced by the actions of the G7. They said we’re not going to let any major institute collapse.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Jeff Kearns in Dana Point, California, at jkearns3@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: March 9, 2009 16:12 EDT



To: Poet who wrote (189698)3/9/2009 11:02:43 PM
From: stockman_scottRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
Applications Drop 20% at Williams as Economy Sours (Update1)

By Janet Frankston Lorin

March 9 (Bloomberg) -- Applications dropped at seven of the top eight liberal-arts colleges in the U.S., led by a 20 percent plunge at Williams College in Massachusetts.

Families facing higher taxes and declines in investments and home values are balking at the costs of small private schools, which can reach $50,000 a year. While attending an Ivy League school, such as Harvard University in Cambridge, may be worth the cost for families that don’t qualify for financial aid, the next level of elite schools may not carry the same value in a sour economy, educators and parents said in interviews today and last week.

Swarthmore College in Pennsylvania, ranked third-best among liberal-arts institutions by U.S. News and World Report, drew 10 percent fewer applicants than last year, and there was a 12 percent drop at fifth-ranked Middlebury College in Vermont. Amherst College in Massachusetts said applications fell 1 percent for the next school year. Amherst and Williams are tied for first in the ratings.

“I told my kids that below a certain level of private college, it’s more reasonable to go to a public school,” said Linda Moses, a New York banker whose son will attend the University of Chicago in Illinois after being accepted early. “I am willing to stretch for Chicago, but for not every school.”

The decline in applications may mean students have a better chance gaining admission to top liberal-arts schools, said Jon Reider, director of college counseling at San Francisco University High School, and a former admissions officer at Stanford University in California. Williams, for one, turned down the majority of applicants last year, admitting only 17 percent.

Increase at Wellesley

A low acceptance rate is one factor used by U.S. News & World Report in determining top schools.

Applications also fell at Carleton College in Minnesota, Bowdoin College in Maine, and Pomona College in California. Only Wellesley College in Massachusetts reported an increase among the top eight liberal arts schools ranked by U.S. News. Wellesley said applications rose 2 percent, to about 4,200.

Applications at all eight Ivy League universities in the Northeast U.S. increased. Harvard College received about 29,000, a 5.6 percent gain from a year earlier, while Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut, got 26,000, 14 percent more. The increase at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia was just four applicants.

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge, Stanford University in California and Duke University in Durham, North Carolina, also attracted more applicants.

Feeling Squeezed

Families that once could afford private college are feeling squeezed during the economic meltdown, as many don’t qualify for financial-aid packages. While Yale provides aid for families earning as much as $200,000 a year, more than three times the median income in the U.S., the limit for aid eligibility is often lower at other schools.

The small liberal-arts colleges, like the larger Ivy League institutions, have enhanced financial aid in recent years. Williams eliminated loans in November 2007, instead giving students more grants.

Williams received 6,024 applications. Last year, applications at the school increased 17 percent to a record 7,552.

“Certainly the economy has to have an effect,” said Richard Nesbitt, director of admissions at Williams. “Some of these kids might have applied to 14 schools last year. Instead of 14, they’re applying to 10 now and maybe the last four are lower- cost public institutions.”

‘Extraordinary’ Applicants

Perhaps the “bigger-name research universities are being kept on the list” and smaller liberal-arts colleges are being dropped, Nesbitt said. Williams continues to attract “extraordinary” applicants, he said.

“We still have the third-highest number we’ve had in the history of the college,” Nesbitt said. “It’s not like were suffering for lack of quality.”

Middlebury received 6,904 applications this year, down from the record 7,823 last year, said Robert Clagett, the dean of admissions.

Swarthmore got 5,626 applications, down from the record 6,241 last year, said Jim Bock, dean of admission and financial aid.

“This year it might be about the money,” Bock said. “We just don’t know.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Janet Frankston Lorin in New York jlorin@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: March 9, 2009 15:45 EDT