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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: $Mogul who wrote (95162)	3/10/2009 12:29:25 PM
From: westpacific	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Qs calling for major take down straight ahead, this run will not go far... Room up into about 7200. Not sure we see it, 60M setting up within a few more days. Study the Qs, the setup is the same as the two big market selloffs in 2008, no difference. In November off the last rally the markets where truly oversold, here we are major overbought as markets have ground lower!!!! No time to play hero here, they are taking out weak hands and setting up bottom fishers, so classic. Notice whom was up large today, FED MEMBER BANKS, da club. B man said no large bank shall fail, at what price to you and I to bail them out. Me thinks down into June/July...nothing goes straight down. G20 is not going to go well, Germany is going to protest this creation of debt. Citigroup CEO, memo, which may or may not be fact and we see this pop! Incredible. The FED is close to buying their own paper and it would not suprize me if they try to support the INDU the same way. West

To: $Mogul who wrote (95162)	3/10/2009 3:39:38 PM
From: westpacific	3 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

If you look at the actual data from Robert Schiller, you can see that the current 10-year P/E ratio is 12.03. During the Great Depression, it was as low as 5.57, during the 1973-75 recession it fell to 8.29 and during the 1981-82 recession it fell to 6.64. Thus, even if you use the most favorable reference point, the 1973-75 recession, stocks have to fall another 31%. If you use the number from the 1981-82, stocks have to fall nearly 45% more and if you use the number from the Great Depression, stocks will have to fall another 54%. stefanmikarlsson.blogspot.com West