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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TideGlider who wrote (6493)	10/25/1997 2:40:00 PM
From: Gary Hoyer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

<<offtopic>> VOLATILITY is probably here to stay. According to Vince Farrell, who was on Moneyline last night, 1995 had 5 trading days where the DOW moved (closed?) 1% or more, this year it's 33%! He does not see these large up and down days getting any less. He says its becuase we are still above the overall market P/E of 17-18.5. Don't know about that but I agree with him on the volatility. Is anyone else impressed when this guy speaks? I've seen him twice now and he just seems to speak with such authority and intelligence. He really likes IBM at these prices for what it's worth. Gary.

To: TideGlider who wrote (6493)	10/25/1997 3:16:00 PM
From: D.J.Smyth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Bruce <<Someone is wrong here. >> there was an article on Southeast Asia two months ago regarding the currency situtation. Basically what happened according to the article is that several box manufacturers moved operations from Thailand and Malaysia and into Southern China where labor was cheaper and the PC business was booming and is continuing to boom (funny no bear mentions that). This left Thailand and Malaysia with excess industrial and operation space as many of their local factories were supplying the now departed box makers. Prices dropped, businesses began suffering, Soros and hedge funds began shorting the currencies. The fear was that, due to their now cheapened currency they would dump products on the Western markets. Some of this has come to pass, it has been both a blessing and a curse as some companies are now able to buy parts in Southeast Asia are substantially reduced prices which will further increase their bottom line going into the fourth quarter. The curse is that many of the same parts produced in Southeast Asia are also produced in the US and other developed countries which could staunch business flow for those companies. The bottom line is that demand is not drying up for PCs worldwide, demand has been increasing at a strong clip for several years. The line is cheaper prices hurting US competitors. How does this affect Cymer? Chips are still needing to be produced. The recent announcement by ASMLF regarding their new relationship with Samsung over I-line and DUV is an example. Korea is still able to compete with the pricing structure currently being offered by the Southeast Asian countries. China is able to compete. US Box makers are now in China; Dell, HP, IBM, Compaq and report strong sales in China with respectable margins. Bill Ficklestein is taking a completely different approach to this market and giving it an extremely negative twist. Only 7% to 10% of the world's family population have computers in their homes or access to computers. 90% remains. The agenda is to tap into these markets and it is being done. Intel has established five new operations in South America and their sales there this last quarter were 15% ahead of the previous quarter. What about all this data? Why is it missing in Ficklestein's view? When the Southeast Asia situation corrects itself as it is doing already (the market has absorbed their excess inventories), the market will rebound.