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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (43742)	3/14/2009 8:07:51 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95615

This is just a "quick and dirty" chart showing the shape of the SPX and the SOX over the past 6 months. Please ignore everything except the shape of the curves since both charts were just posted separately earlier today. Since the last week in January, the SPX has shown much more relative weakness that the SOX. The yellow and green outlines of 3 bars show this trend. The SOX had a higher high bar the 1st week of February compared to the last week of December. The SPX was just the opposite. Overall it is easy to see the SOX hold up quite well since the 1st of the year compared to the SPX.

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (43742)	3/14/2009 9:46:30 PM
From: Kirk ©	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95615

Here is why I think we MAY have bottomed... SOX is leading since Nov.... which I believe was a major bottom but not "the" bottom for the overall market... just for the SOX. Bottoms are never the same... but early cyclicals like the SOX usually go down more into a bottom and thus recover more in the next cycle... the reason I trade the sector. lets see if this set of charts works. THere is a chance we do a triple bottom like 2002/3 so one more later on could be expected, but it would be unusual for the sox to be so high with noise from Asia of a recovery already..... unless it is a repeat of the 2001 bottom... and we still need a 2002 type bottom. But I don't think there is the excess inventory and capacity like there was in 2001.