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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (7411)	10/25/1997 9:05:00 PM
From: Bilow	Respond to of 94695

Hi IQBAL, Remember flight to quality? exchange2000.com exchange2000.com What we are seeing now is just that. US Bonds and the stock market have become disconnected. I know you think it is temporary, and a great trading opportunity. Maybe so. Other than the transitory pleasure of saying told you so I would really like to see this market go up for about 30 more months. -- Carl PS, I really should read my mail more often, I think the above two posts are why the NYTimes e-mailed me for an interview Oct 13.

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (7411)	10/26/1997 1:26:00 PM
From: Tom Trader	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Iqbal--I don't always agree with you, as you know But in this instance, I think that you are dead-on; the impact on corporate profitability of the crisis in Asia is being stated without any real attempt at quantification. As I said to Haim--some sectors and companies that have a substantial component of their business with the ASEAN countries will be impacted--and those are the ones to avoid and possibly short as they retrace. But to suggest doom because of this crisis is short-sighted--there are many companies that have zero exposure to SE Asia and they will be unaffected by this down-turn in Asia. One of the failings that most of us have, is to read into events only the implications that we want to see. Both bulls and bears do this -- amidst all of the prognostications of doom by the bears, I see hardly any who acknowledges that the crisis in SE Asia also means lower prices for imports into this country because of currency devaluations and other competitive pressures and correspondingly a favorable interest rate environment. I asked the question of Haim and did not receive a response -- now I shall ask the same question of anyone else who has a bearish bent: Why would one not invest in companies that do not export to SE Asia and therefore have little or no exposure to the crisis there? Now if the response is that the problems there are the start of a global economic crisis, I don't buy it--unless someone can present convincing reasons that it should be so. This is a serious question because I am preparing to make the heaviest committment to the equity markets that I have done in quite a while -- investing in select quality companies for the medium/long haul, but only if the sell-off continues and prices reach levels that are attractive and simultaneously buying index puts to cover any exposure in case the markets tank. I will also short some of the companies that have sold off recently upon some retracement because not only do they have exposure because of the Asian crisis but also because they have broken down technically and the path of least resistance is down. Regards