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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (43768)	3/18/2009 8:15:39 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95536

SOX hit 231 today, 22% above the February/March lows. February's rally failed at 231, Januaries' rally failed at 236. Be Kind To Intel Day seekingalpha.com With today’s move, the Fed has committed to buy or loan against everything from corporate debt, mortgages and consumer loans to government debt, after cutting its benchmark interest rate to zero failed to end the credit crunch. bloomberg.com (The government's right hand bought debt from the government's left hand. I don't understand why this act of desperation caused a market rally.) Oracle Corp., the world’s second- largest software maker, reported third-quarter profit that topped analysts’ estimates after support contracts helped make up for slowing orders. The company also announced its first dividend bloomberg.com Disclosure: sold all my KLIC today, also sold a bit of ASML. Will sell more into this rally, as high as it goes. Buy back KLIC at $1.52 and down, ASML at $15 and down, buy more FAN at $9.10 and down.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (43768)	3/20/2009 1:48:34 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	4 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95536

Oil gets back above $50/b, after troughing at $37 in 2/09 and $35 in 12/08. Commodities in general appear to have troughed and are heading up (or at least sideways). The market thinks demand has bottomed. FAN (wind ETF) has been in a $9-14 range the last 5 months, down from a high of $31 in 2008. It hit $9.03 last November, and $8.60 earlier this month. TAN (solar ETF), after hitting $30 last year, has been even weaker, hitting $5.40 last November, and $4.65 earlier this month. On the way down, when oil hit $80, announcements for new projects dried up, for the most expensive alt-energy projects (Alberta's oil sands). Below $60, no new projects were announced (for oil sands, solar, wind, etc.), and infrastructure being built started to be delayed and cancelled. Below $50, the whole alt-energy buildout was at a dead stop. Only projects already being built, with financing already guaranteed, continues to be built. On the way back up, with all the new government incentives, I expect demand for wind and solar to come back strongly, once oil gets back into the $60-80 range (and I expect to see that this year, even if the recession continues into 2010). disclosure: I have been accumulating FAN at $12 and down, AMAT at $17 and down.