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Technology Stocks : Ultratech Stepper -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cfimx who wrote (1635)	10/26/1997 12:14:00 AM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 3696

twister, 5 best in no particular order: UTEK: Pipeline of enabling technology, dominant supplier in most of its markets, small and prospects for rapid growth. Art targets $1B sales by 2000 in speech to NYSSA. Rest of this post is OFF Topic. SVGI: MicraScan family of step and scanners. Growing from 40 to 200 tools at about $7M. If succcessful, will quaduple or better in value. If unsuccessful, book is almost $20. MTSN: Best strip tool; coming on with its CVD tool, RTP about a year out. Should take off by late 98 or 99, perhaps sooner. Depends upon success of CVD and / or RTP products. CYMI: Monopoly provider of DUV lasers to the semi equipment makers (SVGI, ASMLF, CANNY, Nikon); rapidly growing enabler of next generation chips with a lock on lasers for at least 3-5 years. LRCX: PSR about 1.5, might be less after last week... :( Improved management (they've been taking over AMAT 1 employee at a time) Etch leader and regaining market share with their Alliance cluster tool; margins improving; once (if) they establish credibility, the street will award them a much higher multiple. Above are all good buys at current prices if your perspective is more than 2 years, IMO. If you're looking at this sector, read the semi blood thread - especially the early posts. Cary S. has selected 8 solid companies that might be worth buying after last week's bargain pricing. While the others are not as low historically or in absolute magnitude, they could be quite lucrative as well. RE: Chipmakers vs Equipment Companies. Chipmakers have high sales / low margins in general. Of course there are a few Intels out there to make my general rule a lie. I see the chipmakers as higher risk without the coresponding promise of higher return. Equipment companies are that I've suggested have their own niches or a leading edge product with huge growth probability. Generally, they're not in the commodity business. Who cares or even knows whether your memory chips are made my MU, IBM, NEC, Samsung, ...? Customers care whether their DUV tool has a CYMI laser or not. It tends to be the highest price product and, even so, has a 90% share. This tends to be the case with the winning equipment companies - little competition and high gross margins, huge cash content of Book Value, no or almost no debt - balance sheets that make the DJIA members green with envy. Distributors: No, I don't follow them at all. But I wish that I had bought Dell when I bought one of their PCs... Or Ingram Micro, when the local store got me a laser printer through them... Ian. P.S. In your profile, I see you asked Cary a similar question. Over the past year or so, I've learned that Cary can be trusted completely to honestly share information fully and freely. Personally, I value most input that he provides (just not my understanding of his philosophy on free trade and monopolies like MSFT). I do hope you find the input of value as you continue your research.