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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alan Bell who wrote (1843)	10/25/1997 10:02:00 PM
From: mister topes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

This certainly makes logical sense based on an analytical basis and based on the currently available numbers. If this is true perhaps some of the pie in the sky ten thousand Dow forecasters will have to go into hiding. Sound like the Dow could have a tough time even getting to 9000 for quite a while. But that is what Brinker has been saying all along.

To: Alan Bell who wrote (1843)	10/25/1997 10:02:00 PM
From: Investor2	Respond to of 42834

Re: " that means the '98 earnings growth would be 8.5%. Given the PE "cap" of about 20-21, does that imply that the S&P can not gain more than 8.5% next year (+ up to 5% for a 21 PE)?" Generally, the answer to your question is YES, assuming that the PE will not go higher than the current level of 20-21. There are several possibilities for the future market movement: 1. If earnings are going to increase and the PE stays about the same or increases, that means that the market is going up. 2. If the earnings are going to decrease and the PE decreases, the market will drop significantly. 3. If earnings and the PE stay essentially flat, the market will stay in a trading range at about this level. Best wishes, I2