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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (43789)	3/19/2009 7:53:35 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	4 Recommendations Respond to of 95546

North American Semiconductor Equipment Industry Posts February 2009 Book-to-Bill Ratio of 0.48 SAN JOSE, Calif. – March 19, 2009 – North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $263.5 million in orders in February 2009 (three-month average basis) and a book-to-bill ratio of 0.48 according to the February 2009 Book-to-Bill Report published today by SEMI. A book-to-bill of 0.48 means that $48 worth of orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month. The three-month average of worldwide bookings in February 2009 was $263.5 million. The bookings figure is about five percent less than the final January 2009 level of $277.2 million, and about 78 percent less than the $1.21 billion in orders posted in February 2008. The three-month average of worldwide billings in February 2009 was $546.1 million. The billings figure is about seven percent less than the final January 2009 level of $584.2 million, and about 58 percent less than the February 2008 billings level of $1.31 billion. “These are the lowest bookings levels we’ve seen since SEMI began compiling data for the book-to-bill program in 1991,” said Dan Tracy, senior director of Industry Research and Statistics at SEMI. “Spending and investments remain at minimal levels as the semiconductor industry waits for clearer signals indicating improvement in end market demand.” The SEMI book-to-bill is a ratio of three-month moving averages of worldwide bookings and billings for North American-based semiconductor equipment manufacturers. Billings and bookings figures are in millions of U.S. dollars. semi.org

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (43789)	3/19/2009 8:24:49 PM
From: Return to Sender	3 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95546

Jacob, I'm on record here stating that it would not surprise me if the market did not bottom until October 2009. That would give us a bear market of pretty much the same duration as the bear that led to the October 2002 bottom. But I have learned a lot more about reading markets and sentiment since 2002 when I was uncertain if we had a real bottom then. I have very little concern about fundamentals, unemployment and consumer demand. What I watch is volume, market breadth, sentiment and the like. I can tell you that I would love to see one more big sell off but I fear it will not be coming. We are very likely going to have the first higher volume up week for all the major averages in a very long time. We have also been seeing great moves in the broader market underpinned by strength where it counts most, transportation stocks, financials and our favorite sector technology. If we don't sell off too much real soon here we are also going to have our first up month on higher volume. The bottom line with that is that even if this bottom does not hold any better than the August 2002 bottom it should prove to be a good time to buy on weakness. The October 2002 low was lower. It was tested in March of 2003 but it held. Then as now we have seen higher lows in many indicators like the BPNDX that Gottfried shares with us. The VIX recently was high but not as high as earlier in this bear market. The number of new lows was high but it has been declining even when the market hit new lows. I could go on and on but with the number of 90% upside days, broad market participation and volume looking better all the time I will just say I believe it is time to buy the dips again and hold for a while. I could be wrong but I know my read on the market is not. Things are looking up. JMHO, RtS