To: CHIP HUNTER who wrote (5044 ) 10/26/1997 1:52:00 AM From: mozek Respond to of 13925
Good points Chip. Since I've never seen a rationale for your conclusions, could you tell me what you've seen in TA that makes you so negative? I'm always trying to learn more, and I do believe that TA can be useful for predicting short to medium term moves in some cases. My personal belief is that TA is most useful for predicting natural fluctuations that are a result of: 1. overbought or oversold conditions resulting from momentum trading 2. accumulation/reduction of large positions 3. constant buying in competition with large, but limited selling 4. opposite of 3 5. leaked insider information Of course there are many variations of these, but in the end, I think fundamentals can cause TA to fail. For example, when CREAF was tanking just before earnings, it became quite oversold, but there were obviously no large insider leaks. I don't know any TA that would have predicted the kind of rebound we saw. That's actually why I didn't increase my position just before earnings, a mistake in retrospect. I actually agree with BZOOKA that we'll be going much higher unless the market tanks. CREAF is in a very good position to profit handsomely this quarter. To me, it looks like we might get a little more consolidation followed by a breakout. This is based on backtesting Chalkins oscillator, RSI+MACD, and the fact that we're just at the top of narrowing bollinger bands (the consolidation part). I have to say, I'm not a TA expert and have found that FA in combination with spotting oversold conditions have worked well for me. While CREAF isn't oversold at this point, it doesn't look severly overbought to me and fundamentally, it looks like a screaming buy. Thanks, Mike