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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (192280)3/21/2009 2:27:55 AM
From: Elroy JetsonRespond to of 306849
 
I don't know Hovnanian that well, but the book value of their land inventory is less than their debt, which is not good considering the book value likely exceeds market value.

If we continue to experience the downturn I anticipate, a lot of these firms will need to reorganize under bankruptcy protection.
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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (192280)3/23/2009 6:57:51 PM
From: stockman_scottRead Replies (3) | Respond to of 306849
 
BlackRock and Carlyle Support Geithner’s Toxic Debt Plan

By Jason Kelly

March 23 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. plan to relieve banks of real estate debt won initial support from investors, who set aside for now questions about asset pricing and whether they will be demonized for profiting from the financial crisis.

“This is not a panacea; it is not a silver bullet,” Laurence Fink, chairman of BlackRock Inc., the largest publicly traded U.S. asset manager, said today in an interview. “But this will take some of the overhang out of the marketplace. It is incrementally a really good thing.”

The Obama administration said today it’s counting on investors such as New York-based BlackRock, hedge funds and private-equity firms to buy devalued real estate loans and mortgage-backed securities from banks so they can raise capital and resume lending. The government aims to spur as much as $1 trillion in purchases by providing $100 billion in capital, as well as financing from the Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

Financial markets rose on speculation the plan will help end the first global recession since World War II. Blackstone Group LP and Fortress Investment Group LLC, New York-based private-equity firms that have said they are interested in increasing their holdings of distressed debt, jumped 24 percent and 37 percent, respectively, in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. BlackRock gained 18 percent.

“This ambitious program is structured in a way to attract private capital and help banks sell distressed or toxic assets,” said David Marchick, head of government and regulatory affairs at Washington-based Carlyle Group, a closely held private-equity firm.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index rose 7.1 percent to 822.92 at 4 p.m. in New York, and the S&P 500 Financials Index climbed 18 percent.

Higher Bids

Until now, investors who wanted to buy subprime mortgages and mortgage-backed securities have been unable to get financing to make such purchases, said Tom Capasse, a principal at New York-based Waterfall Asset Management LLC, which invests in mortgage-backed securities and non-performing loans. The lack of financing limited the returns that funds could generate on mortgage-related investments, and thus limited the amounts they were willing to bid for the assets, Capasse said.

The government financing should lead to bids that are 5 to 15 percentage points higher than existing price quotes for mortgage-related assets, Capasse said.

Enthusiasm Tempered

The initial enthusiasm was tempered by concern that the plan detailed today by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner still doesn’t address whether banks will be willing or able to unload securities at a loss.

“The big issue is whether the financial institutions will sell securities at below the current marks,” said Richard King, who oversees about $40 billion as head of U.S. fixed-income investments at Invesco Ltd., an Atlanta-based fund manager.

Banks could face another round of writedowns if assets are sold for less than the current value on their books. If that occurs, some could need to raise more capital to absorb those losses.

Paulson’s Dilemma

“This is one of the details that sunk the plan initially, and it’s still an issue,” said Steven Persky, chief executive officer of Dalton Investments LLC, a Los Angeles-based hedge- fund manager that invests in mortgages. He was referring to former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s reversal last October on using federal rescue money to buy troubled assets from banks.

“The structural issue is a real problem that they have to resolve,” he said.

Half of the $75 billion to $100 billion in Treasury’s funds will go to a “Legacy Loans Program” that will be overseen by the FDIC. The Treasury would provide half of the capital going to purchase a pool of mortgages from banks, with private fund managers putting up the rest. The FDIC will then guarantee financing for the investors, up to a maximum of six times the equity provided.

The FDIC will hold auctions for the pools of loans, which will be controlled and managed by the private investors with oversight by the FDIC.

“I think these assets take a disproportionate amount of management time,” said Thomas Steyer, co-managing partner of Farallon Capital Management LLC, a San Francisco-based hedge- fund firm that oversees about $20 billion. “Once they are off the balance sheets, it will help free up the credit system.”

Market Will Work

The second half of the Treasury’s contribution will go to the “Legacy Securities Program.” The objective of the initiative is to generate prices for securities backed by mortgages that are no longer traded because investors have little confidence about the underlying value of the home loans.

“The market will find a way to price these assets,” said Edward Gainor, a partner at law firm McKee Nelson LLP in Washington who advises funds on distressed investments.

BlackRock’s Fink said his company will raise money from investors such as pension funds and endowments for the new Treasury programs. The company might consider creating mutual funds so that individual investors can also participate.

Bill Gross, co-chief investment officer for bond manager Pacific Investment Management Co., said his Newport Beach, California-based firm also would participate in the bailout programs.

‘Win/Win/Win’

“This is perhaps the first win/win/win policy to be put on the table,” Gross said.

Other fund managers that may jump in include Legg Mason Inc. and State Street Corp.

Legg Mason’s Western Asset Management unit, which manages about $550 billion in bonds and money funds, will benefit from participating in government bailout programs, analysts at Jeffries & Co. in San Francisco wrote in a report earlier this month. Mary Athridge, a spokeswoman for Baltimore-based Legg Mason, declined to comment.

State Street spokeswoman Carolyn Cichon said the Boston- based firm is evaluating “what, if any opportunities” will come out of today’s plan. State Street manages about $1.4 trillion through its investment unit.

Lawrence Summers, the White House National Economic Council Director, said in a Bloomberg Television interview today that investors in the new debt plan wouldn’t be subject to compensation restrictions applied to banks rescued by the government.

AIG Factor

Still, questions remain over whether Congress and the administration will keep that promise in the face of mounting public pressure over bonuses paid to employees of American International Group Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co.

“The biggest obstacle is whether the government is going to set limits on executive compensation at these funds,” said Steven Nadel, partner at Seward & Kissel LLP, a New York-based law firm whose clients include hedge funds. “If the government can give assurances that there won’t be limits, then the terms could potentially work out for all involved and create liquidity in these markets.”

The level of participation ultimately lies in the details, an area where the Obama administration has disappointed investors in previous attempts.

“We think there’s a fair amount of money on the sidelines that would be enticed back into the market,” said Andrew McCormick, head of securitized products at T. Rowe Price Group Inc., a Baltimore-based fund manager. “We would expect the program to provide clarity. We wouldn’t want to put our best investors into something where the rules are open to debate later.”

Why Not Nationalize?

Kenneth Windheim, chief investment officer of Strategic Fixed Income LLC in Arlington, Virginia, questioned the underlying premise of the Treasury’s plan: that getting private investors involved is the only way to set asset prices and unclog bank balance sheets.

“It would possibly be cheaper to nationalize the banks, get new management and sell the assets off, rather than heavily subsidize or bribe asset managers into taking part in this program,” said Windheim, whose firm manages $1.7 billion in assets. “It’s the same managers who got us into the financial mess who are now going to benefit.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Kelly in New York at jkelly14@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: March 23, 2009 16:56 EDT



To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (192280)3/24/2009 1:31:29 AM
From: stockman_scottRespond to of 306849
 
Hedge Fund Assets to Fall 11% in 2009, Study Says (Update1)

By Bei Hu

March 24 (Bloomberg) -- The global hedge fund industry may shrink by 11 percent this year as funds liquidate and investor withdrawals persist, a Deutsche Bank AG survey said.

Industry assets may fall to $1.33 trillion by December, according to 68 percent of the 1,000 investors surveyed by Germany’s largest bank last month. The respondents, which hold a combined $1.1 trillion of hedge-fund assets, on average expect outflows from the industry to accelerate to $168 billion this year, 8 percent faster than last year.

The deepest financial crisis since the 1930s led to the worst average hedge-fund performance in history last year, prompting funds managed by Citadel Investment Group LLC and D.E. Shaw & Co. LP. to limit withdrawals to stem record outflows.

“If 2008 was a story about performance of hedge funds, 2009 is very much going to be a story about restructuring,” said Sean Capstick, Deutsche Bank’s London-based global head of capital introduction. “Our survey indicates redemptions will continue as a phenomenon for the foreseeable future.”

In a March 13 note to investors, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. analyst Brad Hintz forecast hedge-fund assets to fall 18 percent this year, dropping below $1 trillion before a recovery in 2013.

The HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index retreated 18 percent in 2008, its steepest annual decline. Still, that was less than half the 42 percent slump of the MSCI World Index.

Lagging Outflows

Investors worldwide pulled $155 billion out of hedge funds in 2008, marking only the second full-year of net outflow since Chicago-based Hedge Fund Research Inc. started tracking the data in 1990. The withdrawals helped pare hedge-fund assets 27 percent from a mid-2008 peak, HFR said.

Because many funds only allow redemptions once a quarter, “there is a lag time consistently in outflows in the industry versus performance,” Capstick said. Investors will also seek to redeem when funds lift curbs on withdrawals, he added.

As of October, 18 percent of hedge-fund assets, or about $300 billion, were subject to some sort of restriction on withdrawals, according to Peter Douglas, principal of Singapore- based hedge-fund consulting firm GFIA Pte.

Sixty-five percent of the investors surveyed by Deutsche Bank, including funds of funds, family offices, consultants to banks, pension funds, endowments, governments and insurers, expect at least 20 percent of hedge fund managers to go out of business this year.

Fund Closures

“I see no reason why you wouldn’t see as many closures this year as you saw last year,” said Capstick. “Last year’s performance will start to kick in in terms of hedge funds’ profitability.”

A record 1,471 funds liquidated last year, 73 percent more than in 2007, HFR said in a statement March 18. The closures reduced the number of hedge funds and funds of funds in operation to an estimated 9,284.

The investors in Deutsche Bank’s survey are sitting on $294 billion of cash. They indicated they may reduce cash holdings by $82 billion in the next six months.

In Asia, hedge fund assets may have more than halved to $100 billion, from $250 billion at the beginning of 2007, said Harvey Twomey, Hong Kong-based Asia head of Deutsche Bank’s global prime finance sales and hedge fund capital group.

The number of hedge funds may fall 30 percent to 40 percent from the middle of 2008 to the end of this year, outpacing the usual up to 10 percent attrition rate, he added.

‘Less Frenetic’

“It will probably take us to 2012 or possibly 2013 to get back to where the industry was at its very peak, and this time I think it will be less frenetic,” Twomey said.

Growing concerns about risk management and transparency are leading investors to allocate more money to bigger managers at the expense of startups, Capstick said.

“The consolidation of the industry will continue, because only the bigger players will have that level of infrastructure,” he added.

Seventy-eight percent of the investors in this year’s Deutsche Bank survey ranked risk management as the second-most important factor for picking a hedge-fund manager. Performance remained the most important factor, the survey said.

Transparency came in fourth after Bernard Madoff admitted to running a $65 billion Ponzi scheme. Investment philosophy and manager pedigree, two of the top three traditional criteria for manager selection along with performance, fell to third and fifth places.

Ninety-two percent of the investors said they wouldn’t consider allocating money to funds that have frozen assets.

To contact the reporter on this story: Bei Hu in Hong Kong at bhu5@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: March 23, 2009 20:58 EDT