To: 16yearcycle who wrote (9604 ) 10/26/1997 9:45:00 AM From: Proud_Infidel Respond to of 70976
Some recent notes from Carl Johnson: Wall Street's deep concern about the health of the semiconductor business prompted us to deliver these comments regarding the data we received in the October issue of "Industry Pulse" to readers of our "Daily Notes": Worldwide chip orders came in at record levels for October. Sales were down slightly, but this is normal for the first month of a new quarter. Unit volumes continue to show strength, giving a very positive story for chip demand. Dynamic RAM sales continued strong for the latest reporting month of August with little significant change from the prior month. Total bit demand remains strong, while price per bit continued to drop a further 7 percent from the prior month. The 16-megabit DRAM continues to grow, and 64-megabit units are building up fast. MOS Microprocessor, MicroController, and MicroPeripheral units all look as if they are heading for a strong quarter ended in September. As we know from Intel, pricing pressure is strong on the microprocessor products, so it remains to be seen whether the strong unit demand can make up for lower pricing. One concern we had last month was the low July orders reported for U.S. Electronic End Equipment, a low that hadn't been seen since August 1994. As we said last month, "One point does not create a trend," and fortunately, we didn't panic. In this report, we see the August data for bookings and shipments both bounced back strongly. We definitely see more variability in the data than we were seeing in the past, but the growth trend continues to create a good IC demand. For Semiconductor Capital Equipment, the October VLSI worldwide book-to-bill ratio bounced back at 1.02. Bookings demand is very strong, and we see the first Fabline activity for 300 millimeters as Intel, in Hillsboro, Ore., announces a $1.5 billion, 0.18-micron facility that's expected to be completed in May 1999.