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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tim McCormick who wrote (24046)	10/26/1997 1:38:00 AM
From: hpeace	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

tim, where did you see slowing pc growth. they expect the 4q to up up to 18%. Plus didn't you hear, pc's are selling at record levels. they think this next wave of price drops to take us to 60% home saturation. So, where's the research to support slowing pc growth... ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? remember they forecasted 15% growth this yr and we are going to get more than that. Here's what the negative is.. businesses are still wanting classic p166 and p200's they don't wnat the p233 and p266 for 90% of the workforce. this means that the hp, dec, ibm are in trouble since they can't compete selling a p166 business unit for $1000. that's the business pc not the retial. we already know they can't compete at the retail level at sub 800 and compusa is coming out with a sub 500. Tim, I just looked at the research report on what I/S directors are planning to spend. we are increasing our MIS budgets, not decreasing. we are also, redoing our local phone contracts, long dist, and internet...lowering them and sepending the money on technology.

To: Tim McCormick who wrote (24046)	10/26/1997 12:13:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Respond to of 132070

Tim, That is why we are still in the bubble, not in the stock decline yet. Everyone still assumes that pc sales will grow units at 20-40 pct. forever at flat to higher prices. Which is the only way these stocks can be worth current levels. To say that pcs are not growing is to invite all sorts of criticism like the idiot in Barron's printed in "The Masochist's Ball." The mainstream reporters and industry poobahs dare not deviate too far from the herd, because they don't have the cojones to see what is happening and believe it when it contradicts the religion of the tech bulls. This is how it has been in every tech and every other sort of stock mania. When it swings the other way, it gets just as silly, with stories on the cover of Newsweek telling you how high tech has never delivered on its promises. It does deliver on its promises until the promises become ridiculous, as they are now. So, these manias are typical as they are always bipolar. Everyone is either irrationally exuberant or chronically depressed. And, at the bottom as at the top, I am going the other way. As long as you stick with me, you'll be called stupid by those who accept whatever the current story/scam is. -g- Of course, you can always wave your money in their face, which would be moderately impolite, or give them the finger, as I do. -g- Despite what Fred Hickey and others I respect have said, this is not the mother of all tech manias. They have always been like this, from color television until now. Other than the obvious mental problems, the main thing that gets people to misunderstand is that they think they know demand, when they don't really, don't consider supply, and believe that valuation doesn't matter. It does. MB