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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dragon 1 who wrote (12784)	10/26/1997 8:15:00 AM
From: j g cordes	Respond to of 50167

Xia Qui... These weeks' selloffs didn't hurt my overall positions (significantly (knock on wood)). I'm looking for a tradable reversal around Tuesday allowing Monday to show if things are calming down... (to take some long positions on some techs). That dosen't mean I see a run to SP 1000, but a tradable rally.. and I'll be standing near the exits if its a sucker's rally. Still haven't come to any conclusions on the semi sector. Is it mostly a victim of outside events, or more from too much internal capacity (which is where some of the warnings are pointing). Would we have had as strong a selloff if the Asian currency woes hadn't taken place? Obviously not, so I'm trying to factor out the price/cost to business this damage is causing. The psychological damage has perhaps already exceeded the ongoing strength of these markets, and their relationship to US companies. A one third retracement of the SOX from its highs of 400, good support 290-295's area, back up to 338- 340 area (which I now see as overhead resistance), would be a quick read of the chart. A collapse of semi's shows major 220 support... but I have to ask if this is really possible from a fundamental/demand point of view and I don't think so. We get a bounce and trade sideways for a few months until the currency damage is reflected in profit/loss numbers next quarter reporting. I can say that I'm optimistic we'll see the effects of concerted background currency interventions also. We talk about free markets and how it would be damageing if there were government intervention in Asia... yet we accept it here when the Fed goes into markets or issues statements of support, or occasionally directly trades against speculators.. So if Hong Kong, which I see as psychological lynch pin in area (not Yen even though its far bigger), gets too low, China will make background news and flex its considerable reserves in some way. By the way, I don't smoke, not even cigars... take care and good trading Jim