To: Roebear who wrote (101 ) 10/29/1997 1:33:00 PM From: Terrence Von Holidae Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 629
Roebear: Mr. Soros disposed of a long- $10bb US bond position , yesterday. He is also short the US currency and long Japanese yen. Most hedge funds trading the precious metals are in short positions that are untenable. Further, as the US economy undergoes the rationalization that has affected most other major world economies, the US dollar will fall, US treasuries will fall, and US financial equivalents (equity markets) will fall in value. It will be recognized that a stable store- house of value is needed upon which all currencies , and thus economies, are to be grounded. Floating exchange rates permit trade and fiscal imbalance to go unrecognized for too long a time. Thereby, creating adjustments by speculators with horrendous economic dislocation for the violator, and possibly, its trading neighbors. It is a matter of common sense to expect that we , at somepoint, will need to correct the imbalances in our fiscal, and especially, trade deficits, with the neccessary rationalization lesser economies have. Or, at some point, will be compelled to do so in an unpleasant manner by others. The US has a long -term fiscal imblance approaching $6 trillion- dollars. It also continues to accumulate trade deficits annually in the range of $100 - $300 bb range. The US has been in violation of many of the very same priniples of sound economy we accuse our trading neighbors of violating. But it is also true, the consequences of such unsound economy can remain unaccounted for should that transgressor also be a world currency. The recent sell-off in our equity market, and the mutual relationship among most major markets today, marks a turning point. It demonstrates, that even we, a world economy and currency, are fast approaching the moment of reconciliation in our financial markets and currency, as well. It may be that Mr. Soros senses the turn is beginning. Surely, when most of the metals traders are short, and at very near historic lows for the precious metals, the better speculators take advantage of the discrepancy. I suspect the point of inflection is now, and Mr. Soros is taking advantage of it. Yours, T.V.H.