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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (7454)	10/26/1997 11:16:00 AM
From: tekgk	Respond to of 94695

>> Bulls cannot afford to be wrong for even 40 points- a decline of this size is considered as a begining of the end of the world Most of us on this thread are not quite so dumb. It will take months for a pattern to emerge. Those declaring victory on either side in this time frame are probably novices. Very few people on this thread have done so. As a matter of fact, none of the regular serious posters have done so. Since Aug. the market has not moved enough for either side to declare victory IMHO. >> but a 2000 point run since inception of this thread against this threads direction is a perfectly normal event- I just joined the thread in July and got out of most long positions in June. Based on posting volume I suspect that most of posters here are also recent entrants. There are always going to be doom and gloom people out there and wild perma-bulls who will be right some of the time and wrong most of the time. >> All those catastrophes and fabrications posted on this thread since begining are easily forgotten The same (but on the other side) can be said for 1966-82, 1929-50 and 1896-1921. All of the optimistic forecasts and fabrications made by bulls during this period have been forgotten as well. During these periods bulls lost an average 75% in constant dollar terms and took an average of 26 years to fully recover if they got in at the top. If this is (and I don't know yet) a real bear most of the yuppies will be dead by the time that get back to where they are today. In the mean time I feel that the 9+% low risk after tax return I am making will probably be better than the average bull or bear. Since Aug I have been correct - the future remains to be seen. My primary contention is that the market has been overvalued for several years. I did not get out as soon as I believed it was overvalued. History tells us that markets develop a life of their own and are generally very profitable long after fundamentals indicate otherwise but at some point the party ends. You could very well be correct and we could get another couple months of run up or I could be correct and a new long term bear is starting to set in. In either case are you so sure of yourself, are you so sure that history does not repeat itself - I know I am not. Didn't you make enough money during the greatest bull of the century to live a comfortable life? How much more do you need? Is it worth the risk? Trees don't grow to the sky - 60 feet or so is good enough for me.