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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (9618)	10/26/1997 11:34:00 AM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Cary, <<What risk is there to waiting 1 month to hear from the worlds NUMBER 1 expert on the semi-equip business? The reward MIGHT be to avoid a 30-50% gap down opening the next morning!>> Buying at today's price should not preclude buying more if such a scenario unfolds. What probability would you currently place on such a scenario? If Morgan painted a dark picture for '98 and the stock did respond in such a fashion, what would be your response? <<Did you buy at 42 and 30 because you are comfortable holding AMAT all the way down to $6.>> I bought around 40 and 33. I will mortgage the house to buy all the AMAT I can if it ever gets near book value. When has AMAT ever traded near book value? Don't you think that an industry slowdown would be favorable to AMAT's longterm prospects by enabling it to further extend its industry dominance by acquisition? SC

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (9618)	10/26/1997 12:02:00 PM
From: Sam Citron	Respond to of 70976

Cary, <<Do you really believe that Morgan's customers can run businesses and build multi-billion dollar fabs with the same manic behavior that characterizes stock market volatility?>> Good point. No I do not. As Grove has remarked, fabs are built for markets that do not yet even exist. It is a risky business. But capital markets are intertwined and they are the best barometer of "animal spirits", which influence even capex [capital expenditures]. This is standard Keynesian economics, not just EMH [efficient market hypothesis] blather. Speaking of capex, semi capex has recently been running well in excess of its "normalized" level of 22% of revenues and climbed to an all time record of 31% in 1996. A potential slowdown to a slightly below trend figure of 21% in the next 2 years would imply semi capex average annual growth of only 5% to 10% through 1999 or 2000. SC

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (9618)	10/26/1997 1:20:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

What risk is there to waiting 1 month to hear from the worlds NUMBER 1 expert on the semi-equip business? The reward MIGHT be to avoid a 30-50% gap down opening the next morning! Cary, The markets hate uncertainty more than anything. I believe what we are now seeing is the market pricing in a Worst Case Scenario for AMAT. Even if JM forecasts a disappointing '98, I expect AMAT to rally, or at the very least, to rise somewhat as the MM's breath a collective sigh of relief that what was previously uncertainty asscoiated with poor visibility is now somewhat more "visible" after some guidance. I do not believe the panic associated with this recent selloff is warranted since a HK slowdown will be offset by Europe, US, etc, assuming the demand side of the equation remains the same. Regards, Brian