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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TideGlider who wrote (6631)	10/26/1997 12:28:00 PM
From: Gary Hoyer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Island Limit Book is running 6.5 to 1 sell. Any thoughts on this for Monday? I don't think it's too important considering the sells are for small quantities MAINLY ABOVE 30. On the other hand seems like that will be a resistance level. isld.com Gary.

To: TideGlider who wrote (6631)	10/26/1997 12:30:00 PM
From: Brander	Respond to of 25960

Insider selling usually means nothing, unless several insiders are selling around the same time in large amounts. Insider buying is a much stronger predictor. Brad

To: TideGlider who wrote (6631)	10/26/1997 1:32:00 PM
From: Arthur Radley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Irrational exuberance is a phrase created by A. Greenspan. I wouldn't go so far as to say this thread is the classic example of such behavior, but if current trends continue and the tone of this thread remains oblivious to market influences, the label "might" apply. As for Cymer products, I candidly admit I have no clue as to whata DUV is. I wouldn't know a DUV from a HumVee. Bottomline, I don't care what a company produces. What is important is how many they sell,are sales growing,are profit margins good, and are they making money(useless they are a biotech).Whether is is mops or DUVs is not my concern.(I do draw the line on tobacco products). It is obvious to me that Fleckenstein,as the result of his comments in Barron's needs a reprieve from you CYMER's. Being a TexasDude with thick skin and high high boots, I thought I might be able to wade through the .... that you might throw my way. Please beaware that I'm not long or short the stock and therefore have no vested interest in whether CYMI goes to 100 or 10. These are just my observations on the current tech market and how they relate to CYMER: 1. Many analyst have issued warnings on tech stocks in general. Abby Cohen, who is considered by most people as the best Wall Street Guru, is currentlyin the camp of those who are concerned about techs in general. Before you trash such gurus,just remember they are the ones driving those Beemers(or is it HumVees, making 6and7 figure incomes and sharing in million dollar bonus at the end of the year. They are smart enough to find their way to the bank at least. 2. Take a look at Monday's Investor's Business Daily and note the company downgrade list. You will find at least 12 techs on this list. 3. Take a look at Barron's(come on force yourself)on page MW107. Under the Dow Jones Global Industry group rankings you will find that for the Technology Groups and more specific the semiconductors& related,that for the week their % change and ranking was -6.3% an a rank of 95. This weekly drop was only exceeded by the coal industry. You might also note thatthe volume of shares traded, only the lodging,aerospace,and that coal industry again that exceeded the 83% increasein semiconductors and related group. 4. Someone posted earlier that they didn't care that a large percentage of CYMER's business came from the Asian market. If you fall into this camp, I would quickly suggest that you getup to speed on currency fluctuations and the impact that such fluctuations have on US company profits. Let me give you just one example of this issue. From October 16 to last Friday, US dollar priced goods sold in Taiwan cost the Taiwanese 6.5% more.This eight day slide against the dollar, nearly doubled its prior fall year-to-date. Bottomline is that you had better care where CYMER sells their product. 5.As to where CYMER is selling their product, it is a well known fact that they will have competition from the Japanese in the near future. The last time I checked the Japanese were exporters and not importers of American goods.Maybe CYMER will be the exception. 6. In the New York Times article, W. Angus, CYMER CFO, is cited as saying..."Cymer had not yet experienced slowdowns in orders but that it had caught up with demand, so GROWTH WOULD slow somewhat." Folks, overcapacity leads to lower margins and lower margins lead to lower profits. Just remember it was only the Chief Financial Officer of CYMER saying this and not me. 7.Back to the issue of doing business in Asia. Take a look at FORE Systems on Tuesday and Cisco next week when they report earnings. If they are lower as I expect, you might just want to again reconsider where CYMER is getting their revenue and if they will be the exception to this problem. 8. Now for a final word on the lovable Mr. Fleckenstein. Considering that he is probably from Mayberry RFD and just fell off a turnip truck, don't you just wonder how his short fund is up 25% since 1995.9 9. Don't you find it interesting that CYMER's investment banker is no longer recommending their stock. My banker only calls me to see if I'm still alive and can repay them all the money that I owe. They have never called me to tell me that they are no longer reccommending me. CYMER will never use them again in the future because of this resounding vote of confidence. Remember these are only my personal opinions and that I'm only a TEXASDUDE that on occasions has to drop the "e". Also, please! If you respond, make sure you spell the name correct and beaware that I have an official marriage certificate of my parents wedding and it is signed and validated exactly 9 months and 10 minutes before I was born.(:>)