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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (95818)	3/28/2009 12:30:40 PM
From: ajtj99	1 Recommendation Respond to of 116555

Speaking of unemployment, it looks like U3 could be headed to 12.5% in the US (courtesy of Hunkerdown on SI) Highlights of CFO Survey... First, only 35% of the CFO’s surveyed expect an economic recovery to begin this year. The average of responses was that an economic recovery would not start for another 14 months. If that’s true and we believe the equity market bottoms four to six months in front of the economy, we should not be looking for an equity market bottom until the end of the year at best. Only 32% of the CFO’s believe the economy will be better off due to the Federal Stimulus plan. Have they told Wall Street yet? Apparently not. 53% say their companies will be worse off if health care were nationalized. Very importantly, on the employment front, we suggest the news could not be worse. In aggregate, CFO’s expect to layoff 6% of their workforce this year. If they are even near correct with this comment, this translates to 7.6 million additional jobs to be lost. If that’s the case, we are not even half way through the current payroll contraction cycle. Although these are our comments, the impact on consumption of layoffs of this magnitude? You don’t want to know. 60% of companies will impose a hiring freeze in the next twelve months. 57% of the CFO’s say they plan to reduce or freeze wages. 39% of CFO’s say they plan to reduce hours worked for retained employees. Now you know why we have been screaming so loudly about the decline in wage growth that is sure to come directly ahead. No question about it. Their comments are not good news for the domestic labor market. Full Article and Charts...http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm