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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (33968)	3/28/2009 4:13:31 AM
From: anializer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78688

I don't get much of a message when examining NRG. Some pros and cons kinda offset each other which makes me neutral, not enough to really take a bite except for perhaps a nimble trade at some point. Estimates are pretty good, but its been a pretty big laggard given the past 3 weeks. Total debt and liabilities of almost 18 billion is something of a detraction. with almost 1/4 billion shares out, I think it would take an army of buyers to get this moving up enough to make it significantly worthwhile for an investment. My guess - if the rally were to continue, she can make it up to 19-20. Like most stocks, I'm pretty much looking at everything for trades, not investments. Everything seems so market dependent as opposed to being individually dependent on fundamentals. I divested CSIQ, OME, and some ACM this week. On dips, I may go back into these. ACM does seem promising as do some of these micro cap value stocks. Until the market can produce signals that are strong enough to warrant long term holding I'm staying cautious despite opportunity for continued gains this rally. Bear market rallies tend to be fast, furious, and volatile, but rarely sustainable. So selling into strength even if early beats selling into weakness. Market still looks very short term overbought to me. I'm kinda wondering what the Fed. will do now for act 2? Seems they already spent alot of ammo via recent announcements. Maybe a change in the mark to market rules. I don't view reinstatement of the uptick rule as very significant anymore particularly with short etfs abounding.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (33968)	3/28/2009 3:39:28 PM
From: Dale Baker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78688

NRG-EXC is an interesting idea; why do you think EXC has no means to follow through? It's a stock deal, and EXC has more than 51% of NRG locked up in tenders. Next step is for them to push through board changes at NRG's June annual meeting, which would pave the way for approving the merger. The only possible stumbling block seems to be NRG's debt refinancings, but EXC is large enough that they may be able to work that out. With an arb gap of almost 25% today, NRG looks like an interesting play.