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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Trader who wrote (7491)	10/26/1997 3:24:00 PM
From: Mark Nelson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

China sez it will not support HK dollar. intv.mediacity.com.sg Onward... Mark

To: Tom Trader who wrote (7491)	10/26/1997 4:05:00 PM
From: Joseph G.	Respond to of 94695

Tom, <<To say that the DOW needs to get back to 4000 or whatever level does not recognize that many stocks have corrected sharply. >> You may wish to look at some old charts (for stocks, not S&P) from 1969 - 70, e.g, which was a mild bear market. It is instructive and teaches one the difference between "sharp correction" and a bear market, where these high flier Cos. will correct sharply several times before it's over. One can also argue that a secular bear market is in order. One in which stocks like MRK can get to below 30, IBM can get to below 20, and stocks like DELL to below 10. And over 1/2 of smaller stocks will get to zero, for ever. Recall that since Jan 1991 there was no official "10% correction" yet. Joe

To: Tom Trader who wrote (7491)	10/26/1997 4:20:00 PM
From: William H Huebl	Respond to of 94695

Hi TT, I agree. My son lives in San Francisco... enjoy the weather before it changes..................... Regards, Bill

To: Tom Trader who wrote (7491)	10/27/1997 12:26:00 AM
From: Craig Richards	Respond to of 94695

TT asks: <<What would it take to get you feel the environment is right for getting back on the long side?? To say that the DOW needs to get back to 4000 or whatever level does not recognize that many stocks have corrected sharply.>> Even though some stocks have corrected sharply, greed is still winning out over fear. If we enter a bear market, then I think waiting for fear to become the dominant emotion would be the signal that the bottom is getting close. Some signs of this would be: - Y2K stocks being valued for 2 - 3 years of extraordinary earnings instead of 100. - Coke having a P/E less than its growth rate. - stocks go down on bad news, and go down on good news, too. - momentum investing goes out of favor. - people say "it's different this time" to explain why things are so bad. - Bonnie Bear changes her screen name to Bonnie Bull. - Iqbal only recommends buying puts on the Idea thread. - Bill Hueb starts a thread asking when the downtrend will end.