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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: gregor_us who wrote (19269)3/29/2009 5:49:53 PM
From: axial  Respond to of 71454
 
"Actually, the monetization has now started at precisely the juncture where a shortfall has started to appear in inward capital flows."

Yes, true; but that's exactly when you would expect monetization to start, isn't it? It still doesn't mean that all is lost.

We should keep in mind that globally, it's in nobody's near-term best interests for the US economy to crash. Not unless they too are prepared to accept a lot of pain.

We're watching this great crisis unfold before our eyes, and there are many reasons to believe that the end will be ugly - because if the US goes down, so will the rest of the global economy. If that happens, there'll be an intervening period of chaos. And will the new world economy be built on the same economic precepts - fiat money and interventionist economics?

Everybody is right to claim that there's great danger - there's danger that the immediate crisis can't be resolved, and even if it is, longer-term risks after that.

But if the immediate crisis can be mitigated, it is possible that drastic steps can save the US. By that I mean slashing entitlements, raising taxes, jacking up the economy, and downsizing spending. If these steps are not taken, then as the Chinese say the world will see US economic policies as being "unsustainable".

If interventionist steps such as monetization don't work (at least on an interim basis) then I agree: the future looks bleak.

Jim

Late edit: "It's already started, actually. But you know, it's the start of the dynamic so everyone has calmed themselves by taking the advertised intention of monetization as comfort: you know, "to get interest rates lower."

Once interest rates approach zero, QE becomes the next step.

Yes, it has its own risks - but again, they're attempting to stave off a crash.