To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (62386 ) 4/2/2009 10:03:17 AM From: TideGlider 2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 224749 Cold winters may be new trend; this winter 10th coldest on record Published: March 31, 2009 7:00 AM 0 Comments After enduring the coldest winter in 16 years and now persistent below-normal temperatures that are chilling what should be spring, coastal B.C. residents can be excused for asking what gives. They may not like the answer. Meteorologists suspect coastal B.C. is now being nipped by a trend of colder than normal winter temperatures that could last a decade. Or two. Or three. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a phenomenon of alternating phases in which offshore ocean temperatures tend to run warmer and then colder – for 20 to 30 years at a stretch. “There’s some debate as to whether we’ve slipped into a cold phase or not,” said Environment Canada meteorologist Gabor Fricska. “It may be too early to say definitively.” A warm PDO phase was measured from 1920-1945 followed by a cold phase that lasted until 1975, bringing coastal B.C. many severe winters. It was warm again from 1976 to about 1998. Since then it’s been a mixed bag: three cold years until 2002, then four more warmer years. But Fricska says some meteorologists think the recent spate of cold weather may be the onset of a new cold phase. “It is cold right now,” he said. “The sea surface temperatures immediately off of our coast are one to two degrees below normal.” Three out of the last four seasons (except last fall) have been colder than seasonal, he added. When a cold PDO phase is prevalent, winter low pressure systems in the Gulf of Alaska are often weaker than usual, allowing more cold air to come down to the coast from northern B.C. For anyone wanting proof of the hardship endured in the winter of 2008-09, Fricska offers these Metro Vancouver stats for December-January-February, from the airport weather station: • It was the coldest winter since 1992-93 and the 10th coldest since record keeping began in 1937. • Mean temperatures for the three months averaged 2.4 degrees Celsius, down from a normal of 3.6 degrees. • Snowfall was more than two and a half times normal – 109 cms versus 42.5 – while rainfall was 35 per cent below normal. “People aren’t imagining things if they think it’s colder,” Fricska said. How could this be happening in an era of global warming? Fricska said PDO and shorter duration weather variations like El Nino are regional shifts that don’t reflect what’s happening at the planetary level. He noted B.C. experienced many of its coldest winters in recent memory during the cold PDO cycle from 1945 to 1975 – even though global air temperatures climbed steadily during that period. So far there’s no relief in sight. Yet more snow fell this week at some higher elevations around the Lower Mainland. “Our seasonal forecast for the spring is for continuing below normal temperatures on the coast,” Fricska said.bclocalnews.com