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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeff Mills who wrote (6695)	10/26/1997 7:26:00 PM
From: sepku	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

>>>Sal--You mentioned that you had a long position in CYMI. Perhaps you should think about selling? Your attitude toward the company is awful, especially if you are long CYMI.<<< No kidding, you bring up an interesting point, Jeff. I think he can benefit from some experience since you are only supposed to invest long if you are bullish a company, or vice-versa. That is, if you enjoy making money. Sal, are you paper-trading or do you often use yourself as a contrarian indicator for your own investing decisions? Style Pts.

To: Jeff Mills who wrote (6695)	10/26/1997 7:34:00 PM
From: damniseedemons	Respond to of 25960

Jeff, I'm bullish on CYMI, so why would I sell? My only problem is that I think a lot of the numbers being tossed around here are overly-optimistic. Anyway, here are some things to consider: Cymer has shipped 327 lasers in the first 3 quarters this year. Figure maybe they do 133 more this quarter, for a total of 460. If they're saying 40% growth, assuming stable pricing and 1:1 laser:sales growth, that makes 644 lasers next year. Personally, I think they're lowballing to either leave themselves margin for error (conservatism), or better yet, so they can beat estimates. If they do "only" grow sales at 40% next year, I'll be disappointed. They have said that DUV stepper demand should be 700 next year, and if they go 1:1 with that, then we'll have 52% growth. Better. But CYMI ships lasers at a 1.x:1 ratio. So at merely 1.1:1, CYMI does 770 lasers. Better. And of course, it wouldn't be surprising to see upside to the DUV stepper shipments of 700, especially when Nikon/Canon get things going (and ASMLF consistantly beats numbers by a wide margin, so they'll probably contribute), so there is still more potential. What's important, is that CYMI has capacity for 1000 lasers. They wouldn't go through the expense of that kind of buildout at this time unless they also saw a lot of upside potential in shipments. BTW, CYMI has been selling lasers for well over $400k each. I'm not sure about the exact number (it's not as simple as taking sales revenue / #lasers ($56,062,000 / 126 == $444,936)). Sal PS. I have no interest in proving it, but I would bet that I have a greater stake in CYMI than any of the small fry individual investors on this thread. So don't anyone question my commitment to the company.