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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Defrocked who wrote (3089)	10/26/1997 8:30:00 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

No...I shouldnt have been so "terse"...I've traded options for years and I'll tell you one thing that I guess I take as self evident: You absolutley have to buy "insurance" (options) in a stable situation. You cant buy flood insurance once the weather cat it out of the bag...you cant buy earthquake once that old volcano starts smoking again...you cant get life after the ticker starts acting up... and you cant buy portfolio insurance when the market looks like it did the last few days. You have to look ahead and do it before the event looks probable. Now, you can still be right...but the fact is you've pay much higher premiums. Now, as to the wider question of market direction etc....I think the semi-equip boards (this one, AMAT, CYMER) are a great little experiment right here under our noses! If we were to start over a year ago and read the post and make notes it may produce interesting observations....speaking for my own experience (6 months) I can say that during that time I saw lower and lower levels of scepticism for the first three months followed by only one or two calm heads saying the semi-equip mkt could be overvalued....the rest of the crowd was gleefully crowing about the latest split and other meaningless reasons for new highs....I watched in horror on the AMAT and CYMER threads as anyone with anything negative whatsoever to say was ridiculed and questioned in a condescending manner as to why they were not on board...all reasons given were promptly discredited... whether it was charts or fundamental...even Carl Johnson (Infrastructure) was abused for missing a rally here and a rally there... As for me, I have CYMER @ 28 and wrote the Nov. 30 calls about 3 weeks ago.... I purchased a small amount of AMAT late last week...and I have kept a small amount of SVGI through the whole thing and bought more on Friday..... That said I'm overwhelmingly in cash and some cheap "value stocks" for quite some time now...although I will average down I assume I may have to do so through the worst of times and wouldnt absolutely bet the ranch on this market unless stocks looked like a stupid investment....ie. high interest rates or inflation, no profits, and a downright ugly looking outlook for the economy in general....we are quite a ways from that! I ask myself...whats the stupidest looking investment right now (of realistic investments)??? I keep comming up with....cash....so thats what I like most! DAK