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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (48160)	4/4/2009 6:47:01 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 219836

It is too complex for you to understand. I know.

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (48160)	4/7/2009 8:33:21 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 219836

next bull market in LATAM equities has begun and the rally may last five years as a global economic recovery boosts commodity shares, Citigroup Inc. said. Latin America in 5-Year Bull Market, Citigroup Says(Update1) Share \| Email \| Print \| A A A By Michael Patterson April 7 (Bloomberg) -- The next bull market in Latin America equities has begun and the rally may last five years as a global economic recovery boosts commodity shares, Citigroup Inc. said. Stocks in Brazil and Peru will rise the most as raw- material producers, energy companies and financial firms outperform other industry groups over the next five years, Citigroup strategist Geoffrey Dennis wrote in a note dated yesterday. Chile and Colombia will underperform, while stocks in Mexico, which sends about 80 percent of its exports to the U.S., may trail the initial rally as the world’s largest economy has an “anemic” rebound, Dennis wrote. “The next bull market in Latin America is starting,” wrote Dennis, Citigroup’s New York-based head of Latin America equity strategy. “We expect it to last for the next four, five years as the global economy eventually moves into recovery mode and regional fundamentals improve.” Reports over the past month showing economies in the U.S. and China are stabilizing, along with the U.S. Treasury’s $1 trillion plan to rid banks of toxic debt and an increase in the International Monetary Fund’s lending resources “is the stuff of which bull markets are made,” Dennis wrote. Still, he advised maintaining a “defensive posture” for now because a short-term retreat in the MSCI EM Latin America Index is “overdue” after the regional benchmark jumped 27 percent in the past month. Renewed concern over the health of the U.S. banking system, disappointing first-quarter earnings around the world and reports showing weak economies in Latin America may spur the decline, Dennis wrote. The index won’t fall more than 16 percent, he said. Buy on Weakness The strategist maintained his “overweight” recommendations on Chile and Colombia as part of his defensive, short-term strategy, and kept “underweight” ratings on Mexico and Peru. An overweight rating means investors should hold more of the shares than are represented in benchmark indexes, while an underweight recommendation means investors should hold fewer. “Mexico may lag at first, given its ties to the U.S. economy, but should catch up later,” the strategist wrote. Dennis advised buying Brazilian shares after any selloff, while keeping his “neutral” rating on the country. Latin America equities are trading at an “attractive” valuation of 10.5 times Citigroup’s 2009 earnings estimate and shares may return 20 percent in U.S. dollar terms through December, he wrote. Peru, Mexico Peru’s Lima General Index jumped 53 percent during the past month, the biggest advance worldwide, as a rebound in raw- material prices bolstered expectations the economy will post the fastest growth rate in Latin America. Peru is the world’s third- largest producer of copper, zinc and tin, the biggest miner of silver and the fifth-largest of gold. Mexico’s Bolsa index rallied 22 percent in the past month, while Brazil’s Bovespa gained 19 percent Chile’s IPSA added 7.8 percent. The IGBC index in Colombia increased 5.9 percent. The MSCI Latin America index, which surged 688 percent from the end of 2002 to its May 2008 record, has since tumbled 54 percent. To contact the reporter on this story: Michael Patterson in London at mpatterson10@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: April 7, 2009 07:00 EDT