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Pastimes : The Philosophical Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rarebird who wrote (3979)	4/7/2009 4:36:11 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26251

Depends. You were right, and those gold/silver bulls who held last year were murdered as gold/silver entered interim bear market, but then mining stocks recovered. The dynamics of that market is changing, and I don't want to stand in the way of the bull train when it finally leaves the station. I too expect there could be a Summer dump, and the interim bear could last a while longer. It is hard to predict a bubble, but that's what I expect will happen next in the gold market. The long term profits will be outstanding. I am not sure where the dump stops. Will it stop at 700 or 850, or has it stopped already? Bull markets love to travel light, and they usually leave most behind. At this point it make sense to hold if your investment horizon is 3-5 years. In fact, gold chart is still bullish -g- FWIW, there are a couple of reasons to buy and hold. one is taxes, and it's a valid reason. the second is listed above - for most folks trading in a bull market results in being left at the station when the train leaves. So, by trading you really have to beat both the natural law of the bull and the taxes. Not saying it's impossible, but I discovered it to be quite hard over time.

To: Rarebird who wrote (3979)	4/7/2009 10:30:03 AM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 26251

FWIW, the Fed will increase the monetary base 200%, since the base was 800 bln. before the financial crisis, set to grow by 1.5 Trillion. That compares with 75% increase of the New Deal when US revalued gold from $20 per Oz to $35 per Oz. No I don't want to short gold, despite possible manipulation. In fact, I would not want to short anything. <g> The fundamentals have a divide. Before April the Fed tried to push new credit in, and it would not go in. In fact, $1 Trillion left the markets and sat at the Fed in fear because they promised to pay interest. After April the Fed will monetize. That's a different ballpark game, as holding cash is becoming dangerous.