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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (75976)	4/8/2009 11:40:26 AM
From: Keith Feral	Respond to of 118717

Black Swan principles probably now apply to the short indexes. They are losing their ability to plant the seeds of eternal capital destruction. Same with all the volatility indexes like the VIX. The case for buying puts seems to be winding down. I can't believe it's been over 40 since last September. However, the rolling series of lower lows on the DOW since last fall has kept them in high demand. The seeds of capital destruction are beginning to have positive impacts in some sectors, especially retailers. BBY and BBBY are picking up all the business from the competition that dropped out of the race. Pharmaceutical companies are joining together to protect their franchises. Homebuilders are doing the same. Things have to be sufficienty bad before the market can focus on sequential improvements. Inventory levels, unemployment, and default levels will begin to peak this year. Once the market can begin to focus on the less bad news, things will slowly get better and begin to build some momemtum.