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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: PAinvestor who wrote (6738)	10/27/1997 12:31:00 AM
From: D.J.Smyth	Respond to of 25960

PA <<As I write Hong Kong is down 6% as it has taken a large lurch down before lunch. Japan is down, as is Australia. I expect that we will soon begin to see some initial retail sales reports out of Asia that will be very, very ugly (including Japan). One of the most lucrative consumer items in Asia is the humble PC. I expect sales will fall through the floor. I expect GDP growth rates to be revised downwards by the major brokerage houses for the Asian region fairly soon. DRAM prices are $4 for 16meg currently and still falling. It really is looking quite bad for semiconductor capex, though I am still long Cymer. Why? I think the market will soon place a premium on a company where there is visible earnings growth which has been stated so eloquently by management. Gross profit margins to increase? Sequential earnings growth? High market share? MMmmmmm sounds good to me>> your analysis regarding Asia is hypothetical. while there will be some weak pockets in weak areas, the strong areas in Asia are continuing to show exceptional strength, i.e., Singepore and sales of PCs in China. Compaq, HP, Dell and IBM have all reported strong PC sales in China as of last month. they're not going to drop their pants in 30 days. you've got fear feeding on fear right now, especifically fear in New York. this is rampant speculation which is looking at weak pockets without regard to the strong pockets of growth in the same area.