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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (195700)	4/9/2009 5:59:07 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

the stock market run up is causing mortgage rates to rise... which will hurt the refinance market - which has been on fire of late.

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (195700)	4/9/2009 6:43:16 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

I'm still not seeing how this is a new baby bull. Not only did we not see the put-call behavior seen around prior bear market lows, we are not seeing the typical volume expansion that accompanies genuine bull births. Here's what the last bear bottom looked like - volume began expanding significantly on the rally, and dipped on the retest, and then expanded sharply again on the third wave up. Notice also that the put-call below spiked at the bottom as well as the retest. Compare that to our present baby bull. Volume expansion only on the way down, not on the way up, and the put-call has been falling sharply for months. I know I shouldn't have taken on any exposure until after there was a putative turn, but my hedging strategy is actually designed to open up exposure for me after a substantial rally such as this, and that is what it has done. Kind of investing on autopilot. We're close enough to important resistance, I think I'll let it fly for a little while. `BC