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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Perspective who wrote (195951)	4/11/2009 2:19:05 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 306849

no one i know sold as they were too afraid to open the statements

To: Perspective who wrote (195951)	4/11/2009 4:17:04 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

That chart shows the mutual fund cash level breaking up from a falling wedge. If an inverse H&S neckline forms at 6.5%, the implied target is 9.5% cash level for mutual funds, near the early 90's levels for mutual fund cash.

To: Perspective who wrote (195951)	4/11/2009 4:53:15 PM
From: Galirayo	Respond to of 306849

Dow Theory Chink of Armor in Process ?? img5.imageshack.us stockcharts.com And an Older Chart I posted a while back of the SPX. We'll see how this R is Met with Volume. stockcharts.com

To: Perspective who wrote (195951)	4/11/2009 8:36:30 PM
From: nextrade!	Respond to of 306849

Carl Swenlin April 9, 2009 decisionpoint.com Denninger Saturday, April 11. 2009 Do Not Be Stupid market-ticker.denninger.net We're almost to Tax Day. And the "New Bull Market" callers are out in force. Just as they were last year. Let's look at reality here folks: 1. There is a major liquidity disruption under way right now in the markets. Zerohedge put forward a rather esoteric diagram of this; I don't need one, as it is trivial to observe this in the form of real-time time-and-sales data. Volume has been thin and declining while machine-driven ("quant") trading as a percentage of total volume has been flying higher. 2. There have been a series of overnight 'gap higher' moves in sequence followed by days that fail to follow through strongly (that is, larger than the overnight gaps.) This is abnormal and points to "at the margin" price changes. The key point here is that this is unsupportable over the longer term as the actual base of equity trading; "long-term" owners such as individuals and pension funds are NOT following through during market hours and those holders are not trading /ES futures overnight on Globex! The effect of (1) and (2) is what is known in the investing marketplace as "distribution" - that is, you, the retail bag-holder, wind up with the shares at the end of the day, and the institutional and quant-driven "fast money" departs with your cash. When they stop their high-frequency "pass across the table" game, and they will, you find yourself with some very expensive shares as the floor disappears. Distribution marks tops, usually very significant ones. A month or so back I was warning of a potential credit-market dislocation and imminent collapse in the stock market. It was "saved" to a large degree by these quants and other "high frequency" guys, all of whom have a vested interest in seeing that happen (think of the name of any big investment bank; there you will find one of those parties.) But their firepower and willingness to play this role is not unlimited. Buying and selling between these firms is a nice way to book some profits, but these folks understand the rubber-band problem when markets get stretched, and exactly when their liquidity disappears is a matter of time, not supposition. The imbalance that is presented here has led to the recent rally, but do not be deceived - this is not a new bull market. Bull markets don't feature this sort of distorted move. Rather, they are measured, reasonable advances with most of the buying being real and taking place during market hours. If you got "stuck" in positions either last fall or over the winter months, you've been given a gift. Exactly how far this gift will extend your ability to recover some part of your losses is unknown, but the fact that so long as this pattern persists one must keep a wary finger on the "sell" button is not at issue. Ignore this warning at your peril.