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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Dale Baker who wrote (108626)4/13/2009 3:05:39 PM
From: Dale Baker  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 543748
 
From real academic journals:

Analyses of Pro-Gun Self-Defense Studies

1. Survey Research and Self-Defense Gun Use: An Explanation of Extreme Overestimates, David Hemenway, PhD, The Journal of Criminal Law & Criminology, Vol. 87, No. 4, 1997, pp. 1430-1445.

This paper analyzes survey methodology by Gary Kleck and Marc Gertz, who have claimed that civilians use guns in self-defense against offenders up to 2.5 million times each year—a number repeatedly cited by gun advocates. This paper concludes that the Kleck and Gertz survey design contains a huge overestimation bias and that their estimates are highly exaggerated.

2. Concealed Handguns: The Counterfeit Deterrent, Franklin Zimring and Gordon Hawkins, The Responsive Community, Spring 1997, pp. 46-60.

This essay sharply criticizes the work of John Lott and David Mustard who claim that "shall-issue" concealed carry laws lead to a decrease in crime. The authors point out that, since Lott and Mustard make no attempt to measure how many citizens actually carry handguns on the street or how many times civilians have used them to defend themselves against criminals, their work tells nothing of value about concealed carry laws.

3. Flawed Gun Policy Research Could Endanger Public Safety, Daniel W. Webster, ScD, MPH; Jon S. Vernick, JD, MPH; et al, American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 87, No. 6, June 1997, pp. 918-921.

This article examines methodological problems in Lott and Mustard's study and finds that serious shortcomings render their conclusions insupportable. The authors conclude that "the flaws in Lott and Mustard's study of shall-issue laws are so substantial, and the findings so at odds with criminological theory and research, that any conclusions about the effects of shall-issue laws based on this study are dubious at best."

4. Two Guns, Four Guns, Six Guns, More Guns: Does Arming the Public Reduce Crime?, Albert W. Alschuler, Valparaiso University Law Review, Volume 31, Number 2, Spring 1997, pp. 365-373.

This paper summarizes other researchers' critiques of Lott and Mustard's study, as well as raises new questions about Lott and Mustard's overall conclusions. The author concludes that "at this point, there is essentially no reason for an intelligent consumer of social science research to accept the Lott and Mustard findings."



To: Dale Baker who wrote (108626)4/13/2009 3:17:47 PM
From: Travis_Bickle  Respond to of 543748
 
"It's comparable to people claiming that prayer kept them safe when they walked across the street."

If people I know and trust told me that prayer kept them safe when they walked across the street, I would conclude that prayer keeps you safe when you walk across the street.

I don't carry a gun or keep one at home because I think I'm an unlikely victim, but when I get old I sure as hell will have one because getting beaten up is way unpleasant and in order to avoid* that it makes more sense to me to rely on personal experience (things I have experienced, things those I know and trust have experienced) than the presence or absence of hard numbers.

People can debate the numbers until hell freezes over, personal security is a very personal decision and I don't see the point of relying on studies.

*I guess I could always avoid areas that are risky but there are some really nice parts of the state that are straight out of "Deliverance."



To: Dale Baker who wrote (108626)4/13/2009 3:25:02 PM
From: Steve Lokness  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 543748
 
And this State Senator is a democrat

Sheldon to Criminals: Mason County Residents Have Guns, Will Use Them
By Josh Farley (Contact)
Friday, April 10, 2009

With more budget cuts to the local sheriff's office looming, one Mason County commissioner is reminding his constituents that when crime strikes, you should pick up your phone — and your gun.

Commissioner Tim Sheldon, tasked with trimming the county budget as sales-tax revenue plummets, said he wanted to send a message this week to criminals as he prepares to possibly send a handful of deputies home with pink slips.

"You're on notice: if you attempt a home-invasion robbery, you may be met with armed resistance," he said Friday, "and could receive a Mason County hot lead enema."

Sheldon, who is also a state senator, says he's not advocating for "roving bands of vigilantes," just issuing a reminder that his friends and neighbors in Mason County are "very well-armed, self-reliant and very comfortable with firearms."

Sheldon speculates that about half of Mason's residents own guns, and many of them are well-trained marksmen.

His comments came in response to a statement from Mason County Sheriff Casey Salisbury, whose office has been frank with residents: "Crime can be expected to increase as officers are laid off," he said in a release last week.

Sheldon called that "fear mongering."

Not all of Sheldon's constituents believe self-armament is the answer.

"It's against the law for us to take matters into our own hands," said Margie Benson, a 20-year Tahuya Peninsula resident who participates in a crime-watch group. "He's asking us to do the work of the sheriff's office."

Deputies perform a wide range of duties for a diverse population, 40-year Belfair resident Jackie Higgins said.

"We've got multimillionaires, and we've got people living up in the woods with no indoor plumbing," Higgins said. Both need deputies, he said, not just guns.

Crime is common in Benson's neck of the woods. She said she's heard there have been 18 break-ins on the south shore of the Hood Canal this year.

In south Mason County, several police agencies can respond to incidents — in addition to the Sheriff's Office, Shelton Police, two tribal police departments and the Washington State Patrol, which has a major facility in Shelton. North Mason has only the Sheriff's Office, she said.

Sheldon and his fellow commissioners, tasked with trimming the county budget by $1.1 million, will likely ask the Sheriff's Office on Tuesday to cut about $382,000. Those cuts would force the department to lay off five of its 50 commissioned officers, Salisbury has said.

The crunch is being felt everywhere. The Kitsap County commissioners are asking for its Sheriff's Office to make cuts of about four percent of its budget, or about $683,000. That will likely mean seven deputy positions will be eliminated.

The two sheriff's offices will receive some federal help, likely this fall. About $2 billion in federal stimulus money is being distributed to local police agencies. The Kitsap County Sheriff's Office is in line to receive about $367,000; Mason's office could get about $77,000.

Kitsap Sheriff Steve Boyer worries that the grant money, which may not be available until later in the year, will come after cuts are made.

Mason's sheriff's office brass, meanwhile, feel as if the new cuts are a step backward from recent progress.

Since he was elected Mason County sheriff in 2006, Salisbury has added to the force a drug-sniffing police dog, a special operations narcotics unit and a traffic unit. The traffic unit was added when the State Patrol stopped conducting collision investigations on county roads.

"Casey came in, and we got a whole bunch of stuff we'd never had before," Benson said.

Mason Sheriff's Office leaders also wonder what will happen on a reduced budget when out-of-towners come to their summer homes, a yearly phenomenon that increases the county's population to about 100,000 people in the spring and summer.

Belfair, in particular, bulges.

"We have our population like this nine months out of the year," Higgins said. "When the summer comes, we're like four times that."

This year, an added challenge will be the approximately six-week closure of the Hood Canal bridge, which deputies say will nearly double the county's traffic volume, leading to more collisions.

Higgins worries most that less police means more response time, whether to a burglary or a traffic crash.

"It's going to be a problem," she said.



To: Dale Baker who wrote (108626)4/13/2009 7:39:28 PM
From: TimF  Respond to of 543748
 
Lack of specific hard numbers isn't lack of information or solid rational reason to believe something.

The exact number is unknown and perhaps unknowable, but it is certain, not just a matter of guesswork or faith, that guns are used in legitimate self defense.