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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tekgk who wrote (7624)	10/27/1997 7:12:00 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

So far the money bulge is a very short-term thing. But if it keeps up, you are right. The average lag between monetary inflation and price inflation (according to Friedman & Schwartz) is about two years, so there may be time to wait and then go into hard assets or at least high-yeild money market funds. But none of these things ever play out according to a set script.

To: tekgk who wrote (7624)	10/27/1997 7:35:00 AM
From: bearshark	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Tekgk, I am really quite a bit rusty on this. However, I did watch these numbers in the past and ponder these questions. With social security as a part of the budget, we show an estmated surplus for the next fiscal year. I do not know what the true deficit would be if social security would be an "off-budget" item. However, I remember projections of a consistent $600 billion dollar annual deficit in the 2050 year area. Fortunately for me, I should be gone from this earth in the 2020s. We should have about a $5 trillion debt now that we have to refinance--give or take a few hundred billion. This debt is the dog and any annual deficit or "surplus" is the tail. The Presidents and Congresses have left everything out of the gate over the past 17 years. So we have to continually refinance this debt. Now if countires do not want to eat their fair share of it, then we have to entice them. Maybe we can do that with higher rates. However, that would harm the economy if we had to raise the rates too high too quickly. Hmmmmm. One way we lose and the other way we lose. So we sit and watch the dollar be devalued? Remember when a dollar bought some 200 plus yen? Maybe the HK dollar will look good. Tekgk, now you have me scaring myself. I believe the US dollar reached 86 yen in 1995 for a short time and then hovered around 100 for a while. There are so many factors to consider and so many influences on exchange rates, that I am not sure if anyone knows what is going on. It certainly is beyond me.