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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: $Mogul who wrote (87275)	4/16/2009 3:29:17 PM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 94695

Maybe, but not for another 2 months or so and 20% higher. This rally will last for a while. -g-

To: $Mogul who wrote (87275)	4/16/2009 10:30:48 PM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 94695

Well, my main long position remains gold, silver, and associated equities. Given that PMs re-established themselves as market hedges, I am not too afraid of a market dump. I AM afraid of the Summer gold dump, and I sold a bit of gold stocks long position in February/March. I expect the PM Summer dump to be the last dump before a major multi-year manic rally, if any substantial dump happens at all. I would not short these markets, not with all the Fed cash coming through. I do have some allocation to the broad stock market, but nothing leveraged at this time. Wat I really hate is cash and da T-bondz, but I would not short them T-bondz either, not with the Fed on the other side of the trade. If gold rallies back to 1K, it will pay for all of my broad market exposure and then some. If it breaks out above 1K, then ... well ... it will probably fly to 2K very quickly. -g-

To: $Mogul who wrote (87275)	4/17/2009 11:18:38 AM
From: Real Man	2 Recommendations Respond to of 94695

Mucho Bernanke bucks are pouring into these markets pushing them higher. Be very careful on the short side, IMHO. Don't be fooled by the sorry state of the economy. The economy could disintegrate completely because of this, but the bear will still be dead. Moreover, if the current trend continues, the DOW will reach 100K before you know it. The printing is absolutely obscene. There is no other word to describe it. By being bearish you are betting on cash being more valuable than stocks.

To: $Mogul who wrote (87275)	4/19/2009 4:41:18 AM
From: Real Man	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Deflation is a buzz word, but it only refers to bubble asset prices and sagging demand due to recession. We should see chronic inflation later this year, with prices soaring at 10-30% pace per year. That includes the stock market. It will be followed by hyperinflation within a couple of years if employment does not improve and quantitative easing (polite word for printing) accelerates. Inflation has not nor will it be reported correctly, but none of this crisis was actually characterized by deflation. The DOW could reach 100K, then hit 1000,000 mark shortly after that. As US real economy will be completely ruined by the crony capitalist corrupt union of the government and Wall Street, hyperinflation will ravage this country until the day the angry mobs abolish the Federal Reserve. The Real GDP of USA will be cut in half if not more, and your cash in the bank (life savings) will buy you 1 postage stamp. <G> In other words, beware of the Fed tripling the monetary base, it's 200% inflation bottled up. It will hit us later for sure. This is the cause and effect. The initial effect should be felt this year starting about now.