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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (34213)	4/17/2009 5:42:04 AM
From: anializer	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78708

On TOT, it doesn't appear to be a value at this price, but they do have some decent earnings estimates going forward. It also is approaching an area on the chart where it continually has resisted further decline in the 43 area. However overall I'm not crazy about the chart. The stock keeps knocking on the door near lows, eventually the door opens up. The pattern looks crummy. Immediate gap at 45.80 a likely candidate for fill. Stocks with billions of shares out rarely leave unfilled gaps. Rail shipments lately off a cliff, however ARII plows along at reduced production rates. They did $1.47 in 2008, but estimates are much less this year, I believe 15 cents. seekingalpha.com At a 40% discount to tangible assets it seems to have good support in the recent area of $6.80 or so, where she got some interest 3 times. This last time, buying interest has been sharply higher. On watch, but I haven't bitten (or been bitten) yet. Just a thought. A couple of others that look interesting which I already own are NGPC, PNSN. Both look good to me and PNSN is a good candidate to ultimately fill the October gap - which is 20 to 30% higher and shown on the chart below. Value, earnings, and positive technicals are a nice triple cocktail usually. A few of interest are USAP, MTG, LAD ( nice pop yesterday ), PSEC and LIZ. I'd probably wait for a pullback on LIZ though. I did take some SKS very recently and almost kicked it out on yesterdays pop. High end retailer currently losings gobs of money, but chart indications and balance sheet data still indicate significant undervaluation even considering forward looking losses. And who knows if management takes the right steps to cut costs and improve efficiency going forward. It's always a possibility. After all the chit chat on Ruby Tuesdays ( RT) I got to looking at TUES. Took some at $1.38, and it's been a wild % gainer recently but still at a 60% discount to tangible worth, so I'm thinking may be more room in it. Based on market action in individual names in the low priced stocks, I'd say the unlikely is the likely. They have just gotten too cheap in an environment where the FED will print whatever it takes - unlimited. Money sloshing around is a big driver for sure. Next could be pressure on fund managers from clients complaining about why they are missing the rally. That could force fund managers sitting on cash to deploy some of that money. A few charts below:

To: Spekulatius who wrote (34213)	4/17/2009 2:24:54 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78708

No add for me at this time to my small losing TOT position. (Also we have a little TOT tucked into Pargesa as you know.) I am not understanding the upward movement in integrated oil stocks, domestic (USA) nat gas stocks or the Canadian oil/gas/sands stuff. Plus oil service stocks are moving up as well. Maybe the worst (shut down of gas wells, reduced cap expenditures) is already absorbed by the market. I have decided to close some small positions in oil service stocks and reduce exposure to nat gas companies where forward p/e's seem relatively high. Selling DVN, NBL, WFT, CPX, BJS, others. Looking at TOT brought me to Shell. Looking at RDSB now, that one does look attractive to me. Problems with Nigeria; large capital expenditures (oil sands, lng stuff) means Shell might be needing high oil prices to make them pay. And with these big integrateds, there's always the issue of can they even maintain their reserves. Still, with RDSB's p/e and low stock price, finance.yahoo.com 7.5% dividend yield, and history of profitability so far, maybe RDSB is a buy. I am considering.